Bevan - Sir William Petty (1894)/III
CHAPTER III.
THE TRACTATE ON EDUCATION AND THE BILLS OF MORTALITY.
In the "Tractate on Education" it is interesting to trace the main lines of thought which are found more clearly defined in all of Petty's subsequent contributions to literature. It is a youthful performance, and a good deal of space is devoted to details of a model institution of learning, which was never to see the light. The cast of mind which prompted the plan was permanent, and in it are to be found both the strength and the weakness of Petty's character.
The tract opens with a complaint of the anarchy prevalent in the world of learning. Each one is laboring for himself. No one knows either what others are doing, or what is in itself worth being done. How are we to find out such arts as are yet undiscovered? How are we to learn what is already known by more compendious ways? He answers these questions by recommending that all works describing mechanical inventions should be collected. Of these an abstract should be made. This abstract would give a picture of the present state of science.
In order to make more rapid advance in the future there must be a general training for children, in what he calls "Ergastula Litteraria." In these literary work-houses a child would not only learn reading and writing. He should be taught to do something towards supporting himself. Education should begin by training the powers of observation and strengthening the memory, by directing both to the objects of sense. Drawing and design are indispensable. Of studies, arithmetic and geometry alone are absolutely necessary. Foreign languages can be readily dispensed with. If they are to be learned, they might be taught by methods more satisfactory and less wasteful of time. The invention of a system of real characters would do away with the necessity of linguistic study. Even reading and writing could be taught by improved methods. In this way more time might be spared for mechanical training. So much for elementary instruction. In the place of a university he recommends a college of tradesmen. Here able mechanics were to reside, rent free. Their labors and experiments would be of inestimable value. They would furnish the material for a real interpretation of nature. As subordinate parts of this college, he proposes a Noscomium Academicum, a Theatrum Botanicum, a Menagerie, an Observatory. All of these were to keep a practical end in view. The advancement of the arts was to be the sole object. To make this point clear, considerable space is occupied with a list naming the officers in these institutions, with a minute account of their duties. As the chief text-book he recommends a work to be entitled "Velleus Aureum." This is a compilation giving a succinct account of the different ways of making a living, with especial stress on approved methods of becoming rich. An essential part of this work must be a carefully prepared history of trade. The great advantage of this educational scheme will be to instil in every one an "auri sacra fames," to the great advantage of the State, for all countries where trade and commerce flourish are rich. If such a reform could be carried out, "there would not be then so many fustian and unworthy preachers in divinity, so many pettifoggers in the law, so many quacksalvers in physick, so many grammaticasters in country schools, and so many lazy serving men in gentlemen's houses."
The authorship of the "Bills of Mortality" is discussed by McCulloch in his "Literature of Political Economy," p. 271. There did not seem to him to be any good reason for assigning the authorship of the book to Petty. With this conclusion others, such as Roscher in his well-known essay, John in his "History of Statistics," and Dr. Cunningham, have coincided. Professor De Morgan in the "Budget of Paradoxes," pp. 68-69, adopts the same attitude, and in a controversy carried on with Mr. Hodge in the pages of the Assurance Magazine he virtually follows the lead of McCulloch.
Briefly stated, the arguments against assigning the book to Petty are as follows: In his acknowledged works he refers to Graunt's book as Graunt's and not as his own. Petty in 1660 was too much occupied to write a book demanding such an amount of original investigation. There is no reason given for an unwillingness to acknowledge the authorship on Petty's part. The "Bills of Mortality" contained nothing offensive. On the other hand, the popularity and novelty of the book would certainly have induced Petty to claim it as his own, if he had really been the author. Moreover, between Petty's works and the "Bills of Mortality" there is considerable difference of style, language, opinion, and knowledge. The witness of contemporary testimony is not decisive. The fifth edition of the work, published in 1676, was edited by Petty. His contemporaries might accordingly ascribe the book to him.
This view, however plausibly stated, hardly seems to give adequate weight to contemporary testimony. How are we to reject the following statement of Evelyn:[1] "He (Petty) is author of the ingenious deductions from the bills of mortality, which go under the name of Mr. Graunt."
John Aubrey, whose friendship with Petty was closer than Evelyn's, and who had even a better opportunity than Evelyn for discovering the real author, tells us that the "Bills" was due to him.[2] We are not able to assign a reason for Petty's wish to conceal his authorship under the name of a friend, but we do know that several of his works were published anonymously during his lifetime. The following letter to Aubrey of the 29th of May, 1678, may throw some light on this matter.
"As for the reprinting the book of taxes, I will not meddle with it; I never had thanks for any public good I ever did. I am not forward to printing the Political Arithmetic, but do wish that what goeth abroad were compared with the copy in Sir R. Southwell's hands, which I corrected in 1679."[3] The treatise on taxes to which he here refers was printed in 1662 anonymously. Petty's name does not appear on the title page until 1690. It is difficult to discover any great diversity in style, language, or in any other point between the "Bills" and Petty's authentic writings. Fortunately there is an effective way of testing this question. The first edition of the "Bills of Mortality" bears the date 1661. It was, however, probably published in 1661⁄1662. The following passage from Pepys' "Diary," 24th March, 1662, throws some light on the date of its publication: "To Westminster Hall, and there bought Mr. Grant's book of observations upon the weekly bills of mortality." The "Treatise on Taxes" appeared in 1662. The two works were nearly coincident. The following parallel passages show a conspicuous similarity. The pages are quoted from the first editions of each book:
"Bills," page 57. "We incline, therefore, to think the parishes should be equal or near, because in the reformed religion the principal use of a church is to preach in." Page 19. "I make this question, whether, since they do all live by begging... it were not better for the state to keep them." |
"Taxes," page 6. "One cause of publick charge in matters of religion is the not having changed the limits of parishes and cures.... For now when the ministers of the gospel preach unto multitudes assembled in one place, may not parishes be bigger?" Page 12. "In the next place, it will be asked, who shall pay these men? I answer, everybody." |
Page 55. "The general observation is that the city of London moves westward. Where the consumption of commodity is, viz.: among the gentry, the vendors of the same must seat themselves." Page 72. "It were good to know the geometrical content, figure and situation of all the lands of a kingdom, especially according to its most natural bounds. It were good to know how much hay an acre of every sort will bear; how many cattle the same weight of each sort of hay will feed and fatten; what quantity of grain and other commodities the same acre will bear in one, three or seven years; unto what use each soil is proper; all which particulars I call intrinsic value, for there is also another value merely accidental or extrinsic." Page 51. "Now, forasmuch as princes are not only powerful but rich, according to a number of people (hands being the Father as lands are the Mother or Womb of Wealth), it is no wonder why states by encouraging marriage, advance their own interests." |
Page 23. "If great cities are naturally apt to remove their seats, I ask, which way? I say, in the case of London it must be westward If it follow from hence that the palaces of the greatest men will remove westward, it will also naturally follow that the dwellings of others who depend upon them will creep after them." Page 31. "I propound a survey of the figures, quantities and situation of all lands, both according to the civil bounds.... and natural distinctions.... If there be ten acres of land I would have it judged whether they be better for hay or corn..... This former I call an inquisition into the intrinsic values of land, this latter of extrinsic or accidental follows." Page 49. "Here we are to remember that in consequence of our opinion that labor is the Father and active principle of wealth, as lands are the Mother, that the state by killing, mutilating, or imprisoning their members do withal punish themselves." |
Passages equally striking might be added to these. Apart from such a minute examination of the "Bills," there are the following additional points which would lead us to the same conclusion. The most noticeable thing in the first few pages of the "Bills," is the amount of space devoted to a description of different diseases. They are described with a familiarity and precision which only a physician could be expected to have. There are references to Ireland derived apparently from personal observation. Hampshire, Petty's native county, is the only English county mentioned. There are proposals for poor-law reform identical with those found in Petty's works. The remark that gold would take the place of silver, if the art of making it were known, accords with Petty's view. There is the same suspicion of the benefits of charity, the same contempt expressed for theological speculation, that we find elsewhere.
It might be necessary to apologize for devoting so much space to the question of the authorship of a small book of about one hundred pages, published over two centuries ago, if its unique character had not met with uniform recognition by all who have interested themselves in the history of the science of statistics. It is agreed on all sides that this small book was the first step made in marking out the province of a new science, and the first attempt to collect the preliminary data for its construction. The prefaces to the book contain a characteristic defense of his undertaking. It had occurred to him, he says, that some good use might be made of the weekly "Bills of Mortality." Ordinarily they furnished a topic for idle conversation. Now that he has reduced the information scattered in them to a tabulated form, he believes they will be found to contain valuable information. Such speculations as they give rise to should be a concern to all who are interested in giving a more intelligent direction to the policy of the state. Deductions such as he offers, have, besides, a further advantage, in the fact that the errors of which he may be guilty can be corrected by the material presented. The book opens with an account of the history of the Bills of Mortality from 1592 to his own day with the successive changes in their form. The information they contained in 1661 was as follows: Number of deaths by parishes, the sex, cause of death, and a list of christenings. The form in which this information is presented is subjected to an acute examination. The accuracy of the Bills is accepted on the ground that their contents are mere "matter of sense," not demanding any cultivated powers of observation, except in the list of diseases and casualties. Here it is enough if we know predominant symptoms. Scientific accuracy cannot be looked for. The list of diseases has sixty-four different items. On looking over these some are notably diseases of children. Apparently, then, one-third of all the deaths are due to such diseases. Thirty-six per cent. of those born die before the sixth year. From the number who die by epidemics we get a measure of the climate and air from year to year. In the same way the number of chronic diseases gives us an indication of general healthiness. Longevity is shown by the number of deaths ascribed to old age. The second chapter ends with the statement that some diseases and some casualties bear a constant ratio to the whole number of deaths. Observing that few deaths are due to starvation, it seems a proof of the plentifulness of food. Beggars generally look healthy and strong. It would be best that they should be maintained at the expense of the state by taxation, as is done in Holland. They should be taught some trade. Their value, from this point of view, without such training is small, for unskilled labor is in reality dearer than skilled labor. The small number of murders occurring in London compared with Paris, he accounts for by the free character of the English constitution, London being guarded by free citizens. About twenty-six pages are given up to an investigation of the plague, and the history and characteristics of other maladies. In chapter vii, after making due allowance for the inaccuracy of the lists of christenings, he reaches the conclusion that in London the death rate is higher than the birth rate. On the other hand, it is certain that the number of buildings in London has increased, and many houses have been changed into tenements. The deficiency must have been made up by immigration from the country. Many provincial towns have notably decreased in population. But the country bills always show an excess of christenings over burials. What is the proportion between London and the rest of the country in population? By a very rough computation based on the number of people to a square mile in a typical market town, multiplied by the whole number of square miles, he finds the population to be 6,400,000 for England and Wales. London is about one-fourteenth of this, because it bears about that proportion of the whole taxation. Then follows an attempt to account for the excessive mortality in London. In chapter viii he notices that there are more males born than females. He remarks that this fact is borne out by all the lists that he has seen, and wonders if it holds good for other countries. The next chapter discusses the growth of London. This is substantiated by the increase in deaths in healthful years, or in years in which there was no plague. The town is gradually moving westward. The King's Court is at Westminster. The narrow streets of the city are not adapted to increased traffic. The crowding of buildings within the walls has caused people to build new ones outside. Chapter ix contains his favorite argument for the equalization of parishes. It would be more economical and would offer a better division for poor relief. In the next chapter he notices the exaggerated notions of the size of London. It was believed that six or seven million souls might be the true number. Only one in four hundred would die yearly if this were so. How can we estimate the population exactly? To get the result 384,000, which he offers as the true number, he uses three different methods; all are conjectural. In the first method, from the christening list is deduced the number of mothers, and from these the number of families; finally, by allowing eight persons in each family, the total population. A table of mortality by decades, constructed by guess-work, is fitly followed by the astounding statement that London doubles its population in eight years. In chapter xii, with information supplied by lists from a country parish, he reaffirms what he has already said in regard to the population of the two sexes, giving the ratio as fifteen females to sixteen males. Whatever else he finds in them only confirms what the study of the London Bills has lead him to adopt. He brings the work to a close by again insisting on the usefulness of such inquiries. Many spend their time uselessly in trying to make gold. The result of such efforts, if they succeeded, would be to set silver in the place gold now occupies. Every one should try to do something new. The world is already filled with transcriptions of work already done. An ordinary trade education only teaches men how to supplant one another. The true politics is how to preserve the subject in peace and plenty. The foundation of this science is to understand each country according to its natural divisions. Both trade and government might be made certain if such statistical information as the "Bills" contain could be made use of and its application extended. If such facts were known it would appear how few are engaged on necessary labors, how many do nothing, and are "mere gamesters by trade," how many live by puzzling others with "unintelligible notions in divinity and philosophie," how many by fighting, how many by trades of pleasure or ornament, how few "in raising and working necessary food," how few study nature and things. A clear knowledge of all these matters is, above all things, "necessary to a good, certain and easy government."
The work was enlarged in 1665 by the insertion of two new country bills; by some remarks on the Dublin bills; by actual enumeration of certain districts in London; by observations on foreign cities. After Graunt's death in 1673, the fifth edition was published by Petty in 1676, with two or three pages on the bills of foreign cities added.
Petty continued these investigations by publishing in 1682 his essay on the growth of London. Here he limits himself to ascertaining solely the population of London. He uses the mortality tables—adopting the old ratio of one death in thirty— and corrects the result by comparing it with the number obtained by multiplying the total number of houses in London by 8. From these figures he can compute the population of England, for London bears the eleventh part of the assessment of taxation. The data furnished by the poll money, by hearth money, and by the lists communicants, give an approximately like result.
In the third essay on political arithmetic, published in 1686, we have Petty's final statement on this question. He says there are three methods of reaching the number of people in London. (1) By houses and families. (2) By the number of burials. (3) By the number of those who die of the plague. In the first case he finds by observation that in every family there are on the average 6⅓ persons. In the second he uses his ratio of 1: 30, which he has since confirmed by further observation. In the third he proves by the decrease in the christening list that the plague carried off one-fifth of the population, allowance being made for those who left the city.
Petty was entirely conscious of the great weakness in all these computations. They were conjectural, and he recognized it. He disclaims mathematical accuracy. "I hope no man takes what I said about the living and dieing of men for mathematical demonstration," are the words used in a manuscript letter to Aubrey.
At the Conclusion of his "Observations upon the Dublin Bills" he makes the following confession of the purely tentative character of his deductions:
"Without the knowledge of the true number of the people, as a principle, the whole scope and use of keeping bills of births and burials is impaired; wherefore by laborious conjectures and calculations to deduce the number of people from the births and burials, may be ingenious, but very preposterous." The way to remedy these defects in statistical material he himself pointed out by offering specimen bills which should contain the information he lacked, and he proposed plans for securing more exact information.
It is not necessary to submit Petty's other applications of mathematics to close examination. Among them may be mentioned his estimates of the total wealth in England, of the amount of money necessary to drive the trade of England, of the loss sustained by the Irish rebellion. These and others of like character are of no great scientific value.
A much more interesting matter is Petty's own outline of what the science of statistics should properly include. He is by no means satisfied by mere vital statistics. He makes a strong plea for the collection by the State of exact information on the condition of trade, commerce and agriculture. He was, I believe, the first to recommend the institution of general meteorological observation. As far as possible he tried to remedy the insufficiency of his own information. Aubrey, in his history of Wiltshire, records that at Petty's desire he had collected information on the following heads: Price of corn, rent of land, taxation, poor rates, number of lawyers, fairs and markets.[4]