Mexico's dilemma/Chapter 6
CHAPTER VI
Rising or setting sun in Mexico
THE sun rises unclouded in Mexico City one day, but by that afternoon the clouds dominate the battlefields of the skies. It rains for a few hours, the dusty streets are washed, automobiles and coaches skid and race through the city, and the people go home or to the theatres. The next day they expect the morning sun to be as bright and warm as it was the day before. Because, it may be, it is the rainy season now, they await the afternoon shower and are prepared for it when it comes.
In somewhat the same philosophic way they look at politics. They expect to-morrow to be as peaceful as to-day; but during the past seven years there have been so many unexpected revolutionary storms that when a change comes they act as they do when it rains in the morning, or when the sun shines all day.
To-day, however, there are a few people who would like to know whether Mexico is facing the rising sun of a new, prosperous era, or whether the sun is about to give way to the clouds of another troublesome period. Quien sabe? say the Mexicans. It is true, one never can tell.
A poor-rich nation is Mexico. Rich, because foreign intellect, foreign capital, foreign engineers and foreign business men developed her resources and made her so. Poor, because the revolutions have pestered the foreigners and Mexico in somewhat the same way that an army of Hessian flies destroys a wheat field. But to-day the revolutionists have discovered that the battle cry, Down with the foreigners who exploited us!—though it may win a revolution—does not help reconstruction. The old sign which was illuminated throughout the world under President Diaz—Welcome, foreigners!—is being put up again by timid hands; and it will not be long before it is lighted so brightly that it can be read in the darkest corners of the sceptical business world. This poor little rich nation wants to be as rich in gold as in natural wealth, and the government is beginning to realise that only the hated foreigners have the gold.
There is so much of the melodramatic in Mexican life to-day that one is apt to overlook what is going on behind the scenes. One hears about the autocratic rule of various states; one learns how governors and generals hold up foreign business interests, and about the inability of the central government to enforce its orders; one reads in the newspapers about the street fights and military duels; and one imagines that the whole community has nothing more to do. This is where one's imagination is not a safe prophet.
To-day the United States and the Allies are watching Mexico through a microscope. They delayed official recognition of Don Venustiano Carranza as president of the Republic. They were waiting to see whether the sun is rising or setting. They recognised the de facto government and in August, 1917, President Wilson recognised the official status of the Carranza Government.
The new constitution of Mexico, adopted at Querétaro in January, 1917, contains two articles that foreign governments consider confusing and equivocal. There is a possibility that Article Twenty-seven may be enforced to the extent that every foreign property in Mexico shall be confiscated by the government. Many millions of dollars invested by foreigners are in the hands of the government. Since January first, 1917, to the time of this writing, for instance, the Mexican Government had taken, through so-called forced loans, thirty-seven million pesos in gold from the banks of Mexico City, Monterey, Vera Cruz and other cities.
In some cases the government has given receipts. In others the French, English, Canadian and American bankers and depositors have no records. The government has been compelled to take this step because of the financial crisis that faces the nation. There is no paper money in circulation. Gold and silver coins are the only medium; and the expenses of the government and the requirements of business are so enormous that money must be had, no matter what measures are necessary.
There are some Mexicans who declare that the banks will be reimbursed; but the time when this will be possible depends upon how soon the government obtains foreign financial aid.
Mexico has endeavoured to obtain, through agents, a loan from New York bankers or from the United States Government. Early in August, 1917, a report reached Mexico City that the United States would veto a loan if the bankers floated it. On August twentieth the White House announced that, in the opinion of the United States Government, a loan would not be looked upon with disfavour. This was done to assure the Mexican Government that the United States was not trying to hinder Mexico in her financial aspirations; but as the despatch appeared in the Mexican newspapers it gave the impression that the United States Government had sanctioned a loan, and that all Mexico had to do was to send a ship to New York for the money.
The biggest financial obstacle is the army. Nearly seventy per cent of the annual budget goes to the army and navy. Since there is no navy, this is purely an army expense. The pay rolls contain nearly one hundred and fifteen thousand names; but, according to conservative estimates, there are not fifty thousand soldiers in all the government's forces. The army of dead men is so great that this form of graft is considered as contraband of the revolution.
Generals are not the only ones who are becoming millionaires, measured in pesos. In Pachuca, the largest silver and gold mining city in the world to-day, one government official recently deposited, through an American firm, seventy-five thousand dollars in a New York City bank during seven months. Besides, he purchased considerable property in the capital. The government and the foreigners were sure that this man is dishonest; but his method of grafting could not be discovered.
In Monterey a nephew of one of the highest officials in the government offered local merchants a proposition of importing articles from the United States free of high import duties, provided they would pay him from fifty to seventy per cent of these duties for his work, which consisted in getting the goods across the international border.
Fifteen years ago there thrived in Mexico City what was known as the Thieves' Market. Property stolen by maids, pickpockets, house servants and others was placed on sale every Sunday morning; and Mexicans and foreigners went there in search of missing articles and bargains. It was easier to obtain them in this shop than to start criminal investigations.
Though the Thieves' Market is still doing business, it has competition now in the antique shops and curio stores. The revolution has turned many a church and palace inside out. Saunter through these places to-day and you will find church ornaments, silverware, jewels, Chinese silks, Japanese idols, church bells and bishops' gowns for sale. You can purchase pieces of the silk wall paper with which Emperor Maximilian covered the walls of the National Palace when he ruled the Mexican people. Some day Mexico will be a rich field for collectors.
This is part of the melodrama; but the government has already interfered in this business. There is an embargo on the shipment of any church property out of the country.
In London, Paris, Washington and Rome there are, on file with the various governments, claims of their citizens against the Republic of Mexico. Until the Mexican Government determines upon a definite policy in dealing with foreign interests, and in settling these claims, recognition of the de jure government will be withheld. President Carranza has been informed that some day there will be a reckoning; and this is one of the chief problems he is trying to solve.
Interwoven with this question, like a black thread in a piece of white cloth, is the question of neutrality. To-day Mexico is not even a passive belligerent; and the hope of the United States Government, judged by its policy, is that Mexico will adjust her internal affairs so that it will not be necessary for America to divert her war energies from the European battlefields. One day, 
SHOW THE TWO TYPES OF "MEXICAN" SEVERAL HUNDRED
AND PERHAPS SEVERAL THOUSAND YEARS AGO
THIS IS A PIECE OF TERRA COTTA GIVING THE LIFE HISTORY
OF AN AZTEC INDIAN FAMILY. FOUND BY PROF. NIVEN. PHOTO BY MR. NIVEN
while talking to Don Luis Cabrera in the Treasury Department, he remarked that, because the sentiment in the Chamber of Deputies was so strongly in favour of neutrality, the government would not change its policy; but, despite the statement of Mr. Cabrera and the official attitude of Washington, neutrality remains in a variable state.
It is not the attitude of the United States or Mexico to-day that is important. It is the position the two nations will assume when Mexico has to decide ultimately what she is going to do.
The sentiment among the Mexican people, so far as one can judge, is one with the motto "I don't care!" The opinion of the Intellectuals, the influential leaders back of the government, and of some high officials, is different. These men are pro-Ally because they are pro-Democracy in Mexico and Europe,
One Sunday afternoon an American banker gave a party at his home in the suburbs. One of the chief members of President Carranza's cabinet was present. His reputation as a master of anecdote had grown into fame since his visit to the United States, where he had learned to speak English.
"It was house-cleaning time in Hades," began the secretary, looking round the room, into the eyes of every woman and man present, to see what impression his first remark had made. It delighted him that his audience was international. There were present foreign diplomats, antiMexican Americans, anti-American Mexicans, and myself.
"No. It is not shocking, as you say in the United States," he added with a smile. The guests smiled politely, too, so as not to discourage him. "Satan," he continued, "ordered his servants to dust and clean all the corners and rooms of his palace, which stood at the entrance to his estate." He spoke slowly, so as not to make a mistake in his youthful English.
"It was evening when Satan made his inspection. He saw that everything was perfectly clean inside; and then he looked at the"—he paused for the word—"exterior. Above the gate Satan read the old worn inscription: 'All hope abandon, ye who enter here.' And Satan said: 'I must have a new sign. That one is not modern. It is not up to date'—as you say in New York.
"Satan thought a while." The secretary paused and puffed his cigar. "He consulted some of his chief advisers."
"You mean his Cabinet," suggested an American.
"Ah, yes," replied the secretary; "Satan consulted his Cabinet. And the next day the new inscription above the gate read: Made in Germany!"
Though the secretary told this story with as much enthusiasm as if he had been the author of it, I imagine it was one he had heard in the States. It served the purpose at this gathering, however, of crystallising an opinion held by many influential Mexicans. It would not be fair to give this minister's name, or to conclude that, because he is anti-German, the government is about to change its policy toward the belligerents.
Mexico is awaiting a provocation. Perhaps it would be better to say that it would not be wise for Germany to provoke her. The famous Zimmermann letter, revealing the German opinion regarding annexation, has been forgotten; but Germany is again playing with neutrality by her growing intrigues in Mexico. The I.W.W. have become as active in Mexico against foreign interests as in the United States; and the money they use is called marks.
President Carranza's authority is, in some states, only nominal to-day. A few governors, especially if they are military leaders, interpret and obey his orders as they see fit. For this reason the Chief Executive is commonly called the Easy Boss; but what for some time Mr. Carranza has been becoming is a Calm Dictator. He has been accomplishing some reforms so quietly that even the men deposed have been unaware of his object.
When Señor Carranza first took office he had to appoint his popular generals to Cabinet positions. To date he has eliminated most of them, and with great skill. One man, who was thought to be dishonest and who was anti-foreign in every policy, demanded a certain Cabinet berth—the Department of Fomento, or Public Works. Mr. Carranza could not remove him, so he wrote a decree changing the duties of this department, taking all the important foreign work out of his hands. The foreigners were delighted; and so was the Cabinet officer, because he had other things to do. He didn't care to deal with foreigners, anyway.
A year ago from the time I was in Mexico ex-President Diaz was regarded as having been the worst dictator and boss Mexico ever had—by the Mexicans. To-day he is being considered in a different light, though his evil acts have not been forgotten. Fifteen years ago, when a list of ten names was placed before Diaz so that he might select a senator from Coahuila, he picked the ninth, that of Señor Carranza. To-day this senator is Diaz's successor, and he had developed many of the qualities of leadership the old Indian had. Mr. Carranza's friends say that he is developing a Democratic dictatorship in Mexico; but the foreigners add: "By his acts we shall judge him."
Still, the question is asked: "Was Diaz a prophet, too?"
Because of the universal lack of education among Indians and Mexicans, a representative government such as exists in Mexico to-day is, in fact, only a representation of the strongest parties and elements supporting Carranza; but Mexico remains more of a nation over Mr. Carranza than under him. He dominates the Central Government and he holds the nominal support of his old military chiefs; though, very often, they take matters into their own hands, such as taxation of foreign mines and ranches. Though the President has compelled some of these men to resign, the task is so enormous that it cannot be completed for some time. Mañana is a famous expression in Mexico when one asks how soon something can be done; and, though mañana means to-morrow when translated into English, it signifies a much longer period when applied to work.
The iron policy in Mexico, if one may call any act there by that term, belongs to the military chiefs. There is no lack of firmness when they act.
Don Luis Cabrera, former Secretary of the Treasury and now government leader in the Chamber of Deputies, is considered the intellectual leader of the country; but one of his hobbies is the hunting of ducks. Still, this story is not to be about a duck hunt. More interesting than such excursions are his activities in Parliament.
A few days before the session adjourned, in August, 1917, some members objected in uncensored terms to the presence of Americans in Mexico City as members of a financial commission upon the invitation of the government. Their activities were due more to Cabrera's initiative than to any other official's.
Two American authorities—Professor Chandler, of Columbia University, and Professor Kemmerer, of Princeton—had just reached the capital. A member of the Deputies declared he thought their presence ought to be investigated, and that the government ought to be questioned about such an important matter. He denounced Americans in general and the government more particularly.
Cabrera, who is always on hand to support the government, saw the members supporting the speaker and in a clever speech stated that he thought the government ought to be interrogated. The investigation was set for the next day.
The next day he appeared in a different rôle. Cabrera defended the government! A member asked whether there were no Mexicans capable of doing the work the Americans were asked to do; whether Mexicans could not audit the government's accounts. Certainly, replied Cabrera in substance; but unfortunately most of these Mexicans are out of the country. Señor Limantour, who is in Paris, could do it—Limantour was Secretary of the Treasury under Diaz.
The opposition would not be quieted and Cabrera began one of his famous orations. "Because Thomas A. Edison, an American citizen, invented electric lights is no reason why Mexico should burn candles," declared Cabrera in part. These experts, he added, had been consulted by the United States and foreign governments; and Mexico, desiring to obtain the services of financial authorities, had invited them as any other government might. Cabrera's address and his knowledge of parliamentary rules won the day for the government, and the speaker escaped without a challenge to a duel.
He has been challenged more than once; but his opponents know that he is a crack shot at ducks.
The visit of this American commission and the growing tendency among officials to be more friendly to the United States are the hopeful signs in Mexico to-day. The financial experts were charged with the duty of investigating the receipts and expenditures of the government departments, with the object of making recommendations to establish efficiency and honesty. A giant's task it was.
By many this was interpreted as the initial step by the government in a new policy toward America and outside interests. Be that as it may, the Carranza Government was much more friendly to the United States than it had ever been. The Chief Executive time and again had ignored the protests of the German Minister because American warships were in Mexican waters at Tampico. This form of friendly neutrality was not agreeable to Herr von Eckhardt. What friendship there is today is due to Ambassador Fletcher. He was hissed on May first, 1917, when Carranza took the oath of office, and Von Eckhardt was applauded. If there were a celebration to-day the honours would be reversed. That much the ambassador did in four months. He may yet have the Mexican cheering Uncle Sam's troops in France. One never can tell what diplomacy may do next.
One of the needs of Mexico is an efficient railroad system. A curious attempt at a refutation of this asservation of mine I have printed in the appendix of this volume. Here I reaffirm that for seven years practically no repairs have been made on any of the lines—either those owned by the government or those owned abroad and operated by the authorities. In Monterey there are the wrecks of four hundred freight cars, burned by General Villa as a sacrifice to his legions when they made their last march through the city.
A government official has inspected other lines and found four thousand cars that can be repaired; but money, labourers and materials are needed. The first and third can come only from the United States. And it has been explained to the government by private parties that, even if Mexico had the money to purchase engines and car-construction material, it would be three years before they could be delivered, unless—there is always a way to evade contracts—Mexico were an ally of the United States. And in that case every effort would be made to aid her. Allies always have the first call.
Multiply the task that faced Diaz when he was struggling with the conflicting elements of Mexico in 1877 by the increase in population in Mexico, and by the increase in foreign capital invested, and you will have an understanding of what faces Señor Carranza. Forty years ago the United States would not recognise the official or de jure government of Diaz, because he was struggling with the same tasks and inactions of the present day, but on a smaller scale.
Whether Señor Carranza will adopt the same attitude toward foreigners that Don Porfirio did, and whether he will try to reconstruct Mexico with the assistance of outside brains, are questions which events alone can answer. Señor Carranza has the same opportunities. So far as the United States is concerned, one might judge from the former policy of President Wilson that he was willing to help the Republic get on its financial and reconstruction feet, even if the alignment of Mexico on the side of the Allies were a temporary burden. The United States is endeavouring to help the nation by advice and counsel.
One suggestion which has been made to President Carranza is that he shall abolish the decree fixing an artificial value in exchange for American money. Formerly one dollar was equal to two pesos in Mexican currency. To-day, by a government order, a dollar is accepted by the government as equal to but 1.85 pesos in gold, or 1.75 pesos in United States bank notes. If the Mexican Government would agree to the old standard—so it is stated—American gold and silver would be used in exchange and increase the amount of available currency. But the government has not acted. It is claimed that an official is benefiting by the present arrangement; and he is apparently strong enough to prevent a change. But perhaps not! The government may not be convinced.
The mint in Mexico City is coining fifty thousand dollars' worth of silver fifty-centavo pieces every day, and much more gold. But no machine or collection of machines can make money as fast as a wasteful Republic can spend it. I doubt whether one machine can make money fast enough to pay the salary of a general who, by chance, may be a governor, an inspector, and something else too. One man in Mexico is not necessarily made for one job.
Since the spring of 1917 there has been a change in the attitude of certain foreign investors toward the Carranza Government. There has been apparent an inclination to work with the officials. Canadian and American merchants have been again looking after Mexican business. So, too, the British. Some of these people have already discussed claims with the government, and there has been a belief that they will be able to agree with the officials. This is shocking those who believed there was no chance of the Carranza Government's continuing so long.
While in Mexico, talking with a large number of foreigners, I found that those who were showing a willingness to co-operate with the authorities were not only being encouraged by the results but they believed it would be profitable.
"Concessions" is the most hated of all words by 
PROFESSOR WILLIAM NIVEN, WHO HAS CHARGE OF
THE EXCAVATIONS NEAR MEXICO CITY the revolutionists, because it was said that foreigners robbed Mexico with concessions; but that word is actually being used to-day to describe what the present government is doing. I met an American who had recently obtained a water-power site near Mexico City. Engineers calculated that the falls would develop twenty-four thousand horse-power. This was concession; and it had been granted by the government that was opposed to such things when it began.
Hated, cursed, vilified and condemned, Venustiano Carranza remains the strongest political figure in Mexico, and the only man who can guide the fateful and fretful destinies of the Republic to-day. All agree about this, Mexicans and foreigners. Carranza or intervention!
There is no organised revolution to-day. Most Mexicans will tell you that Villa has no political influence, that his men are deserting from day to day. But Villa is a Mexican Humpty-Dumpty who falls to pieces one day and is put together a few months later.
When I was in Tampico I was told that Villa had been in communication with Pelaez and that General Enriquez had been designated by Pelaez to serve with Villa on his staff in case of another revolution. It is significant, also, that the troops of Manuel Pelaez call themselves "Villistas."
At one time there was a plan under way for Pelaez and Villa representatives to meet in New York for a conference, but according to a public announcement by Villa in November, 1917, he travelled through Mexico in disguise and conferred with the other rebel chiefs.
Whatever may be Villa's political objects and aims one thing is apparent; that is that he could not make a stand against the present government of Mexico without assistance from interests in the United States opposed to Señor Carranza, or from German influences in Mexico. Villa is supported by one or the other of these, perhaps by both.
One day in 1917 three hundred Villistas strolled into Torreon, and then out to an American ranch, where they informed the manager that Villa had discharged them. Perhaps there was no more loot! Perhaps Carranza is an easy boss. It may be that this is the only kind of dictator the Mexican people will follow now.
But despite all this, the puzzle of the Mexican Sphinx remains: What Will Mexico Do? How will the government interpret the constitution? Will the authorities return confiscated property? Will the government adjust foreign claims? Will the banks be reimbursed?
Sphinxes are not found in many parts of the world, but there are two in Mexico. Standing at the corner of Calle San Francisco and Avenida Juarez, looking toward Chapultepec Park one can see, on the right, the National Theatre, the so called White Elephant, with its incomplete marble walls glistening in the sunlight like a giant's heliograph. In the distance towers the rusty steel skeleton of the proposed House of Parliament. The Mexicans call it the Black Elephant.
These are the Mexican Sphinxes—the symbols of Mexico to-day. Whether these structures are completed and transformed into modern architectural monuments depends upon the answers to the questions facing the government. Whether they rattle to pieces or wear away unused depends upon the replies Señor Carranza makes to the questions the world is asking. These two buildings, or parts thereof—just as Mexico itself—contain possibilities for success or failure. But the question their bleak walls and iron bones ask is answered with the echo:
"What will Mexico do?"
Aristotle once remarked that, to be complete, things must have a beginning, a middle and an end. How simple; and yet how informing! This chapter, so far, has only a beginning and a middle; therefore, it is not complete.
I began by asking whether the sun was rising or setting in Mexico. I shall answer: The sun is rising; but I cannot tell whether there will be rain to-morrow.