NWS Wichita Area Forecast Discussion on April 24, 2024

by Kelly M. Butler, Andy D. Kleinsasser and James Cuellar

784
FXUS63 KICT 242017
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
317 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather possible late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Severe weather is also possible tomorrow afternoon and evening, though there is some uncertainty in tomorrow afternoons activity.

- Conditional severe chances east of the Flint Hills Friday afternoon/evening.

- Potentially significant severe weather anticipated on Saturday.

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.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

As warm moist advection continues atop an 800-700mb baroclinic zone, light showers will continue to try and develop through the afternoon. CAPE is minimal, less than 300 J/kg at best through early evening. Tonight, as enhanced moisture advection surges into southern KS, more significant 850-300mb MUCAPE (1500-2500J/kg) is progged along with 40-50kts of 1-6km bulk shear and steep mid level lapse rates. Thus strong to severe storms will be possible late tonight into tomorrow morning with large hail (quarter to golf ball sized) being the main concern along with isolated damaging wind gusts. As storms continue to regenerate, some localized flooding concerns could develop.

Some solutions would suggest a line of storms/and or MCS may develop toward morning along and east of a line from Russell/Lincoln County to Harper County. We may remain grunged over on tomorrow as storms continue to regenerate. An outflow boundary may result from ongoing convection tomorrow which has the potential to limit the otherwise warm front/warm sector from moving into the area. In this scenario, the severe threat would be limited to elevated hailers primarily throughout the day. However, should the outflow boundary be more weak or washed out from early morning convection tomorrow, then the warm front/warm sector would be able to move into the area increasing the risk for sfc based storms. That said, the dryline is looking to set up across far western KS/far eastern CO, and with ample CIN it could be tough to initiate a sfc based storm across the CWA. However, any sfc based storm would be capable of all severe hazards, including storms that can survive the trek across western KS into central KS. For now, the best guidance and local thinking is the outflow scenario is most likely to play out.

With time, the pacific front/washed out dryline will push east into central and south central KS, perhaps near/after 12z Friday morning. Some model solutions show a nearly uncapped environment across central and south central KS ahead of a PV anomaly. A similar setup to last weeks convection which involved a couple brief AM tornadoes amidst storm clusters looks to be in the cards, with low level SRH of nearly 300 and 3CAPE of near 100 J/kg.

By Friday afternoon there could be time for a severe storm or two to develop along and east of the Flint Hills, however it will be a race against the large scale forcing for ascent which will be starting to exit the area. While standard severe ingredients appear to be in place, the dryline doesn't look as sharp with little in the way of sfc convergence to work with, aside from perhaps a lingering boundaries from morning convection.

Saturday has the potential to bring significant severe weather to the area. Of course there is plenty of time for the forecast to change and there does remain some degree of uncertainty particularly in storm mode. A sfc low in the vicinity of SW KS is progged to deepen and move east/northeast potentially around central/south central KS by peak heating. Moderate to strong instability (2500-4000 J/kg) will combine with strong flow (60kts+ bulks shear), nicely curved hodographs/strong LL SRH, and strong 3CAPE (200j/kg). Any storm that can remain discrete or even semi-discrete in this type of environment will pose significant hazards from strong to potentially violent tornadoes, large to very large (2-3+ inch) hail, and damaging wind gusts.

The upper trough will move northeastward on Sunday, making way for a warming trend as we go into the middle the next week. Quiet weather will prevail at least until middle of next week.

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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Shower/thunderstorm chances will gradually be on the increase tonight, persisting through at least Thursday morning, as 800-600mb warm/moist advection increases amidst increasing instability. The instability/shear combination should favor at least a handful of strong to severe storms capable of large hail, along with locally heavy rainfall. Covered this threat with PROB30 groups for now at all TAF sites. Additionally, the increasing low-level moisture will support widespread MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings later tonight through Thursday.

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.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Friday: Very high grassland fire danger is expected Friday afternoon as dry air and windy conditions affect portions of central and south-central Kansas.

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.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMB
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...JC