CHAPTER 7
CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS OF AUTOMATION IN SPACE
During the 1960s NASA proved that access to space is feasible for both manned and unmanned systems. During the 1970s NASA demonstrated that important scientific exploration and applications missions could be conducted in orbit. Simultaneously, imaginative and worth while future space missions were conceived and studied. However, two major constraints limited implementation -cost and technology. A great many proposed missions could be accomplished through application of current technology but at unacceptable costs. New technology is needed which is not only mission-enabling but also cost-reducing. The Space Shuttle is NASA's first major technology project to address these twin objectives. In years to come, advanced automation will play a major role in achieving similar objectives. A space mission life cycle may be divided into three phases: (1) conception, design, development, test, and evaluation; (2) procurement of mission flight and ground articles; and (3) mission operations. At present, procurement is only about 10% of life-cycle costs. Most facility support equipment already is in place, also on the order of 10% of mission life-cycle costs. The first phase through conception, development, and test, and the last phase of flight operations, each is on the order of 40% of life-cycle costs. Consequently, reducing space hardware disbursements has small effect on total life cycle costs. The present dominance of the first and last phases in mission accounting is due in large measure to their people-intensive character. Cost reductions are possible by focusing on two specific goals. First, increased personnel productivity can help make space affordable, in part by using computer technology to organize and integrate knowledge, for information extraction and retrieval, decisionmaking, scheduling, and for automatic problemsolving. The efficiency of human action may also be improved through advanced teleoperations and robotics. Second, costs may be cut by decreasing the requirements for human interaction and the need for terrestrial materials. This ultimately can be accomplished through more complete in situ machine intelligence and robotics. Advanced automation can substantially contribute to both approaches. Applicable techniques range from intelligent computer assistants for enhanced human productivity to, ultimately, autonomous self-replicating systems utilizing extraterrestrial materials and energy. These latter automatons could be materially self-sufficient and produce immense economic returns if employed in production or service capacities. The Mission Goals Symposium which took place at Pajaro Dunes in June 1980 (sec. 1.2.3) addressed a specific question: "What bold new NASA space missions could high levels of automation make possible 25-50 years hence?" In their deliberations the participants postulated levels of automation capability that might be achievable given adequate funding and a clear focus, and also a range of mission types that such capabilities could, at least in principle, make possible. The Symposium concluded that if certain (very difficult) new levels of automation capability could be achieved, a whole new set of space missions having high economic and s__ientific value would become possible. In each case a decision to pursue one of these long-term goals would demand focused research beginning decades earlier, each having a series of rather sharply defined short-term goals of its own. Such subgoals provide valuable focus and stimulation for automation research generally, and suggest a natural stepping-stone developmental sequence of graded complex ity in the areas of command and control, robot dexterity and repair capability, sensing and reasoning, and multirobot system organization.
7.1 Space Facilities and Programs Overview The missions considered in this study are based on a broad array of activities which have been proposed to achieve various scientific and technical objectives. If cost as a factor were excluded, there would be little question of the impetus for doing most if not all of these missions. The costs involved, however, are such as to require an orderly progression of activities so that needed technologies can be developed in an affordable manner over the next several decades. The scenario that has emerged from this study is logical, with an orderly progression from early Shuttle operational phases to the establishment of self-replicating lunar factories and (possibly) space colonies. An underlying premise is the commitment to an ongoing program of space exploration and utilization. While space exploration can be accomplished largely using unmanned, highly automated craft, space utilization involves
