States is faced with a situation in which national economic independence is held hostage to the critical resources of minerals (manganese, cobalt, chromium, titanium, and tantalum) and energy (OPEC petroleum) controlled by unstable or unfriendly nations. Space can provide energy and mineral resources to sustain steady growth of both our economy and that of the world for the foreseeable future. The notion that space can produce benefits that directly affect the way ordinary people live has the potential to mobilize strong public support and provide the funding and planning stability NASA now so desperately needs. The requirements of energy, knowledge, and resources create markets for specific services. Already the communications and Earth resources satellites are experiencing rapid market growth. NASA gradually must develop new markets and new constituencies in the business and public user communities. Lift costs remain expensive and necessitate reducing Earth resupply. In the past this pressure has led, for example, to satellites able to survive unattended for years. In the near future, it will mean on-orbit assembly and checkout, and on-orbit repair and refueling. In the long term, satellites can be manufactured directly from extraterrestrial materials in space. According to United Nations' estimates, some 70% of humanity is poor, underfed, and undereducated. Most recent analyses of the future have concluded that the outlook for humanity is dark -an increasingly grim world of limited living space and resources on a finite planet. To our knowledge, none of these gloomy studies has considered the liberating potential of space, either the advanced technology necessary to master it or the possibilities for longterm solutions using extraterrestrial resources (Vajk, 1978).
7.2.1 Specific Goals for Growth Scenario Some studies of space stations start by assuming fullscale activity or by ignoring the process of growth entirely. A central conclusion of the present study is that growth must be incorporated into policy planning, and must proceed from current or easily foreseeable capabilities toward desired goals in such a way that two principles are observed:
/ / / / / / LUNAR / / FACILITY / / 7_ REMOTE ..." SERVICED s . ';ERMANENT I- GEOFACILITY _ MANNED Q. '_00 s....-_ IcED -...... LEO / MANNED --_ REMOTE ' SERVICED STS I I I I I 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 YEAR Figure 7.3.-Timetable for development of automated activities in space.
