For a summary of the preliminary best track with 6-hourly pressure and wind data see Figures 1-3 and Table 1. Selected ship reports associated with the storm are listed in Table 2.
METEOROLOGICAL STATISTICS
Although Tropical Storm Aletta did not make landfall, it did affect portions of the Mexican coast, primarily the Acapulco area, with locally heavy rainfall. Official rainfall amounts are not available at this writing.
CASUALTY AND DAMAGE STATISTICS
Unofficially one person drowned in Acapulco as a direct result of Aletta and there was some damage due to heavy rainfall and local flooding. Specific damage estimates are not available at this writing.
FORECAST AND WARNING CRITIQUE
One of the difficulties early in the history of Aletta was trying to assess which of two areas would ultimately develop: 1) Tropical Depression One-E which was about 750 miles west of where Aletta was forming, or 2) the system that became Aletta. SHIFOR, a model for predicting intensities, predicted that both areas would develop to tropical storms with Aletta reaching hurricane strength. Tropical Depression One-E eventually dissipated without ever reaching tropical storm status, and Aletta didn't quite reach hurricane strength.
The track forecast models essentially projected tracks along the prescribed initial motion with some divergence of the tracks at the longer time periods. Two runs of the new QLM model that replaces the MFM this year (which are the only models that do not use initial motion as input) were not impressive. Both runs took the system inland over Mexico.
A plot of the 3-hourly satellite position estimates revealed a saw-toothed track while Aletta was on its northward course. Since the dimensions of the teeth were on the order of two latitude degrees, it is doubtful that such a track was due to the system wobbling, but rather to difficulties in locating the system using infrared satellite imagery.
HPG
Draft July 16, 1988
Final July 24, 1988
