THE HISTORY OF COMMERCE
doubt whether such a rate of change will be maintained in the future. The day is still distant when the Japanese tradesman can hope to establish with the Occident relations of such mutual intimacy and confidence as will enable him to take the place now occupied by the foreign middleman.
Analysis of Japan's foreign trade during the Meiji era (1868—1900 inclusive) shows that exports exceeded imports in fifteen years. This would suggest a tolerably well-balanced trade. But closer examination does not confirm the suggestion. Reckoning from 1872, when returns relating to movements of specie became available for the first time, it is found that the quantity of gold and silver which flowed out of the country exceeded the quantity flowing in by fifty-nine million yen. On the other hand, the imports of merchandise for the same time were three hundred and twenty million yen in excess of the exports. Obviously Japan cannot have paid for imports worth three hundred and twenty millions of yen by a disbursement of only fifty-nine millions of species. This apparent anomaly admits of an easy explanation. After the war of 1894—1895 Japan received from China an indemnity of thirty-six and one-third millions of pounds, out of which she brought eighteen and two-thirds millions into the country. Further, in 1898, she sold bonds to the value of four and one-third millions in the London market and caused the
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