PROBABILISM
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PROBABILISM
tine declared that marriage with infidels was not to be
regarded as unlawful since it was not clearly con-
demned in the New Testament: "Quoniam revera
in Novo Testamento nihil inde prseceptum est, et
ideo aut licere creditum est, aut velut dubium dere-
Uctum" ("De Fide et Operibus", c. xix, n. 35 in
"P. L.", XL, 221). St. Gregory of Nazianzus laid
down, against a Novatian writer, that a second mar-
riage was not unlawful, since the prohibition was
doubtful: "Quo argumento id confirmas. Aut rem
ita esse proba, aut, si id nequis, ne condemnes. Quod
si res dubia est, vincat humanitas et facilitas"
(Or. 39, "In sancta Lumina", n. 19 in "P. G.",
XXXVI, 358). St. Thomas maintained that a pre-
cept does not bind except through the medium of
knowledge: "Unde nuUus ligatur per prJBceptum
aliquod nisi mediant e scientia ilUus" ("De Veritate",
Q. xvii, a. 3) ; and Probabilists are accustomed to point
out that knowledge implies certainty. On the other
hand many theologians were Probabiliorist in their
principles before the sixteenth century. Sylvester
Prierias (Opinio, s. 2), Conradus (De Contract.,
Q. ult), and Cajetan (Opinio) were Probabihorists; so
that Probabiliorism had gained a strong hold on
theologians when Medina arrived on the scene.
Bartholomew Medina, a Dominican, was the first to
expound the moral system which is known as Prob-
abilism. In his "Expositio in lam 2» S. Thomce",
he taught that, "if an opinion is probable it is Lawful
to follow it, even though the opposing opinion is more
I probable". His system soon became the common
teaching of the theologians, so that in the introduction
to his "Regula Morum" Father Terill, S. J. (d. 1676)
was able to say that until 1638 Catholic theologians of
all schools were Probabilists. There were exceptions
such as Rebellus (d. 1608), Comitolus (d. 1626), and
Philalethis (d. 1642), but the great body of the
theologians of the end of the sixteenth and of the first
half of the seventeenth century were on the side of
Medina. Amongst them were Sa (d. 1596), Toletus
(d. 1596), Gregorius de Valentia (d. 1603), Banez (d.
1604), Vasquez (d. 1604), Azor (d. 1607), Thomas
Sanchez (d. 1610), Ledesma (d. 1616), Suarez (d.
1617), Lessius (d. 1623), Laymann (d. 1625), Bon-
acLna (d. 1631), Castropalaus (d. 1633), Alvarez (d.
1635), and Ildephonsus (d. 1639).
With the rise of Jansenism and the condemnation of "Augustinus" a new phase in the history of the Prob- abilist controversies began. In 1653 Innocent X con- demned the five propositions taken from "Augusti- nus", and in 1655 the Louvain theologians condemned Probabilism. Tutiorism was adopted by the Jansen- ists, and the Irish Jansenist theologian, Sinnichius (d. 1666), a professor of Louvain, was the foremost de- fender of the Rigorist doctrines. He held that it is not lawful to follow even a most probable opinion in favour of liberty. Jansenist Rigorism spread into France, and Pascal in his "Lettres Provin^iales " at- tacked Probabilism with the vigour and grace of style which have given his letters their high place in litera- ture. The "Lettres Provingiales" were condemned by Alexander VII in 1657, but Rigorism did not re- ceive its final blow till the year 1690, when Alexander VIII condemned the proposition of Sinnichius: "Non licet sequi opinionem vel inter probabiles probabilissi- mam".
After this condemnation a moderate form of Tutior- ism was unfolded by theologians like Steyaert (d. 1701), Opstraet (d. 1720), Ilenricus a S. Ignatio (d. 1719), and Dens (d. 1775). During this period, dating from the middle of the seventeenth to the miildle of the eighlcenlh century, the following were anioiig.st the notable theologians who remained true to Prob- abilism: Liigo (d. 16(10), Lujuis (d. 1681), Cardenas (d. 1684), Descliainps (d. 1701), Lacroix (d. 1714), Sporer (d. 1711), Salinanticenscs (1717-1724), Maz- zotta (d. 1748).
Side by side with Probabilism and Rigorism a
party held sway which favoured Laxism, and
which maintained in theory or practice that a
slightl)' probable opinion in favour of liberty could
safely be followed. The principal upholders of this
view were Juan Sanchez (d. 1620), Bauny (d. 1649),
Leander (d. 1663), Diana (d. 1663), Tamburini (d.
1675), Caramuel (d. 1682), Moya (d. 1684). Laxism
was expresslv condemned by Innocent XI in 1679;
and Alexander VII (1665-66), and Innocent XI
(1679) condemned various propositions which savoured
of Laxism.
Besides Rigorism, Probabilism, and Laxism, there was also a theory of Probabiliorism which held that it is not lawful to act on the less safe opinion unless it is more probable than the safe opinion. This view, which was in vogue before the time of Medina, was renewed in the middle of the seventeenth century, as an antidote against Laxism. Its revival was princi- pally due to the efforts of Alexander VII and Innocent XL In 1656 a general chapter of the Dominicans urged all members of the order to adopt Probabilior- ism. Though previously Dominican theologians like Medina, Ledesma, Banez, Alvarez, and Ildephonsus were ProbabUists, subsequently the Dominicans in the main were Probabihorists. Amongst them were Mer- corius (d. 1669), Gonet (d. 1681), Contenson (d. 1674), Fagnanus (d. 1678), Natalis Alexander (d. 1724), Concina (d. 1756), Billuart (d. 1757), Patuzzi (d. 1769). Probabiliorism was held bj' many Jesuits such as Gonzalez (d. 1705), Elizalde (d. 1678), Antoine (d. 1743), Ehrentreich (d. 1708), and Taberna (d. 1686). In 1700 the Galilean clergy, under Bossuet, accepted Probabiliorism. The Franciscans as a rule were Probabihorists, and in 1762 a general chapter of the order, held at Mantua, ordered t he members to follow Probabiliorism. In 1598 a general chapter of the Theatines adopted Probabiliorism. The Augustinians the Carmelites, the Trinitarians, and many Benedic- tines were also Probabihorists. The most notable event in the history of the controversy occurred in connexion with Thyrsus Gonzalez, S.J., a professor of Salamanca, who (1670-72) wrote a work, entitled "Fundamentum Theologize Moralis", in favour of Probabiliorism. In 1673 the book was sent to the Jesuit General Oliva, who refused permission for its publication. Innocent XI favoured Gonzalez, and in 1680 sent, through the Holy Office, a decree to the General Oliva ordering that liberty be given to the members of the order to write in favour of Prob- abiliorism and against Probabilism. Gonzalez was elected general of the order in 1687, but his book was not published until 1694.
During the controversies between the Probabilists and the Probabihorists, the system known as jEqui- probabilism was not clearly brought into prominence. iEquiprobabilism holds that it is not lawful to follow the less safe opinion when the safe opinion is certainly more probable; that it is not lawful to act on the less safe opinion even when it is equally probable with the' safe opinion, if the uncertainty regards the cessation of a law; but that if the existence of the law is in ques- tion, it is lawful to follow the less safe opinion if it has equal or nearly equal probability with the safe opinion. Many of the moderate Probabilists of the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries foreshadowed in their writings the theory to which, in his later days, St. Alphiinsus adhered. Even Suarez, who is regarded as a typical Probaliilist, said: "Major probabilitas est ([Uiedam moralis certitudo, si excessus probabili- tatis certus est (De Legibus, 1. VIII, c. 3, n. 19). In the beginning of the eighteenth century Amort (d. 1775), Rassler (d. 1730), and Mayr (d. 1749), who are sometimes classed as moderate Probabilists, in reality defended .iMiuipnibabilism.
This vi(>w gained vigour and persistence from the teaching of St. Alphonsus, w'ho began his theologi-
