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C O N F I D E N T I A L TEHRAN 3543

E.O. 12065: GDS 4/3/85 (TOMSETH, F.L.) OR-P
TAGS: PINT, PINS, PGOV, IR
SUBJECT: IRAN'S REFERENDUM AND PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE

1. (C) ENTIRE TEXT

2. SUMMARY: TURNOUT FOR IRAN'S REFERENDUM WAS LARGE AND THE VOTE WAS OVERWHELMINGLY IN FAVOR OF THE NATION'S FORM OF GOVERNMENT BECOMING AN ISLAMIC REPUBLIC. HOWEVER, THE WAY IN WHICH THE REFERENDUM WAS ORGANIZED AND CONDUCTED HAS LEFT SOME ELEMENTS OF IRANIAN SOCIETY DISGRUNTLED. WHETHER THIS DISGRUNTLEMENT CAN BE CONTAINED OR NOT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER A SENSE OF POPULAR PARTICIPATION IN THE FORMULATION OF IRAN'S NEW CONSTITUTION IS ACHIEVED, AND WHETHER RAPID PROGRESS IS MADE TOWARDS ITS PROMULGATION. THE PROSPECTS IN THIS REGARD ARE NOT PARTICULARLY GOOD SINCE THE GOVERNMENT HERETOFORE HAS BEEN IN THE POSITION OF REACTING TO KHOMEINI'S PRONOUNCEMENTS ON THE SHAPE OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC RAAHTER THAN TAKING THE LEAD IN DEFINING ITS PARAMETERS. THE GOVERNMENT MUST CAPUTE THE INITIATIVE ON THIS ISSUE IF IT IS TO PREVENT PRESENT GRUMBLING FROM BEING TRANSFORMED INTO ACTIVE, PERHAPS VIOLENT OPPOSITION. END SUMMARY.L