ordinary “futures,” i.e. middling American cotton of “no staple,”
&c. Whether the purchaser of an option gains or loses depends
upon the price that he has paid in relation to the gain, if any, that
he makes out of his power. The price of options of course
varies: that of double options is always highest, but they are
little used. A “straddle” is a speculation on the difference
between the prices of nearer and more distant futures, which
varies from time to time, or on the difference between the prices
of different kinds of cotton. An example will make the nature of
the straddle clear. Suppose a dealer buys April-May “futures”
at 4d. a ℔ and sells the same quantity of May-June
“futures” at 41064d. a ℔. Then, whether prices rise or fall
as a whole, he gains if the difference between the two prices becomes
less than 1064d., but if it becomes more, he loses. On
the other hand, had the dealer bought May-June at 41064d.
and sold April-May at 4d. he would have gained in the event of
the difference increasing, and lost in the event of its decreasing.
A question which has met with a good deal of attention is whether the speculation, which has been encouraged by the various arrangements made for facilitating operations in “futures,” has steadied or unsteadied prices. Measures of steadiness in prices. Before we are prepared to answer this question we must be furnished with a precise conception of what is meant by “steadiness” in prices. It is sometimes assumed that this is measured perfectly by the standard deviation,[1] which is obtained by taking the squares of the differences between the average and the individual prices, summing them and extracting the square root. But obviously the information given by the standard deviation is limited: the frequency of movement cannot be inferred from it; two series might have quite different average oscillations and yet the same standard deviation; and the range of movement, or spread of the variations from the average price (though allowed for in the standard deviation more than in the average error), is hidden. Now frequency of movement, average daily price variation, and range of price movements are matters of fundamental importance to the public. Hence for practical purposes we require several kinds of measurement of price movements, and it is impossible to weigh exactly the one against the other in respect of importance. Observe that an increase of the frequency of movement, or even of the average daily movement, is not necessarily objectionable, since changes are less harassing when they take place by small increments than when they are brought about by a few big variations. The difference between the highest and lowest price, we may observe, is a very imperfect indication of the range of movement (though, taken in conjunction with the standard deviation, it is the best at our disposal), because either of the extreme prices might be accidental and quite out of relation to all others. An investigator must be on his guard against using quotations of this kind. There is also a difficulty about the frequency of movement, because as a rule many movements take place in one day the total over a period sufficiently lengthy to yield general results is enormous, and many are unrecorded. In one day, for instance, when the net drop was 33 points and the range of variation 59 points (namely, 8.45 to 7.86), 150 price fluctuations were recorded. However, the count of frequency of movement from daily closing prices would probably afford a roughly satisfactory comparative measurement in markets in which prices sometimes remain the same for a day or two together. The points just noted apply also to the average fluctuation and the standard deviation, but it is probable in these cases that daily or even weekly quotations would be sufficient to yield the information sought for with sufficient exactness for purposes of comparison.
Now, supposing dealing to be confined to experts, what
effects upon the course of prices would one expect from the
specialism of the cotton market and improved facilities
for dealing, on the assumption that dealers were
Effect of specula-
tion on steadiness of prices.governed wholly in their actions by the course of prices
and never tried to manipulate them? The frequency
of movement ought to increase because the market
would become more sensitive, but, other things being equal, the
range of movement ought to diminish, and ultimately the average
daily movement also, though at first the latter might not fall
appreciably if, indeed, it did not rise, owing to the increased
frequency of movement. These results would prove beneficial to
the community. May we infer deductively that they have been
attained because of the increase of speculative transactions?
By no means, and for two reasons. In the first place, the public
speculates to a large extent on the cotton exchange, and its
speculation (taken as a whole) is sheer gambling. But, it may be
replied, the outsiders, being as a whole completely ignorant of the
forces at work, so that they cannot form rational anticipations,
cannot have any effect either way: by the law of chance their
influences would neutralize one another. This would be so if
people acted independently and without guidance, but actually
they are sometimes misled by published advice and movements in
the market intended to deceive them, and, even when they are not,
they watch each other’s attitudes and tend to act as a crowd.
The mass becomes unduly sanguine or weakly surrenders to
panic. Hence the law of error does not apply, and speculation by
the public may unsteady prices. Again, dealers sometimes try to
create corners and form powerful syndicates for that purpose: the
dealing syndicate of late years has become a force to be reckoned
with. Many large-scale operations are entered into, not because
prices are relatively high or low, but to make them high or low for
ulterior purposes; i.e. the market is deliberately “bulled or
beared.” In consequence of this tampering with the market no
certainty can be felt about the effect even of expert dealing.
What, then, we may profitably inquire next, has actually happened to price movements generally as the market has developed? This question can readily be answered as regards the past forty years or so, for which material Movement of prices. has been collected, but the reader must bear in mind that if improvement can be traced it cannot logically be attributed unhesitatingly to the perfecting of the machinery of speculation, whereby a larger use has been made of “futures,” since many other economic changes have taken place concomitantly and they may have wrought the major effect. The world may be steadying and steeling its nerves. Now, turning to the actual effects, we discover somewhat remarkable facts. Expressed both absolutely and as percentages of the price averaged from the 1st of October to the 31st of July, the range of movement, standard deviation, and mean weekly movement calculated between the times mentioned above (October 1st to July 31st), after diminishing significantly for some years after the later ’sixties, have risen appreciably on the whole of late years. The figures in the table below are from the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, June 1906: quotations for August and September were omitted to avoid the transition movements between the price levels of two crops.
In this table measurements of price movements stated both absolutely and as percentages of price levels are given, because authorities have expressed doubts as to whether the former or the latter might be expected to remain constant, other things being equal, when price rose. On the one hand, it is argued that speculators are affected only by the absolute variations in price, while on the other hand it is contended that a movement of one “point,” say, is less influential when the price is about 8d. than when it is about 4d. In response to the first view it might be argued that if speculators are influenced only by the differences for which they become liable, a “point” movement would have a somewhat slighter effect on their action, other things being equal, when price was high, because, supplies being relatively short, each of them would tend to be engaged in a smaller volume of transactions measured in quantity of cotton, than when supplies were larger. But the point need not be discussed further here, since both percentage and absolute indices of unsteadiness have risen of late years. The explanation of this change in the direction of indices of steadiness cannot be proved to consist in any peculiarity in the supplies of recent years. But the dealing syndicate has probably been of late more common and more powerful—that is, the syndicate which exists to make profits out
- ↑ See article on “Dealings in Futures in the Cotton Market,” in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, vol. lxix, p. 325.
