a descending tendency, notwithstanding the fact, noted in the
preceding paragraph, that the youthful population, which, of
course, weighs down the rate, has also been relatively decreasing.
Countries of Oriental and semi-Oriental habits have not been
shown, owing to the difference in their marriage system from
that of western Europe. It may be mentioned, however, in
passing, that their marriage rate is generally considerably higher
than that here indicated, as may be seen from the example of
Galicia, which is here shown separately from cis-Leithian Austria.
years of age and decreases rapidly as that period is left behind.
A Swedish return of I8Q6"1900 shows that the annual births per
thousand wives of 20-25 are fewer by nearly 17 % than those of
wives under 20. Between 25 and 30 the number falls off by
one-fifth, and after, 40 by about 44 %. In the countries
mentioned in Table V. the average proportion borne by wives
under 30 to the total under 45 is just over one-third. That
proportion is exceeded in southern Europe, where women develop
earlier, and in Galicia. In England and France it stands at
TABLE V.
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Per 1000 of Population. Y
Country. Persons Married Yearly. /Vomen, 15 to 45 (1900). Men, 20-50. I 1861-1870. 1871-1875. 1895-1904. Total. Married. Unmarried. Unmarried. Sweden 13-1 I4'O I2'O 215 88 123 83
Norway 13-3 14-6 13-2 218 QI 102 71
Finland 15-5 17-9 14-1 219 103 115 70
Denmark 14-9 15-9 14-6 221 104 III 81
England 16-7 17-1 15-8 250 117 127 77
Scotland . 14-0 14-9 14-3 242 102 135 90
Ireland 10-5 10-7 10~1 235 76 153 125
Holland 16-4 - 16-6 14-9 218 96 118 82
Germany 17-0 18-9 16-4 226 114 107 76
Belgium . 15-o 15-1 16-4 230 108 117 85
Austria (W.) 16-1 17'7 15-7 ' 227 106 115 85 France 15-6 16-9 I5°2 228 120 100 82
Italy 15-2 15-6 14-4 214 116 92 71
I Galicia .. .... 19-7 19-7 17-6 225 125 94 67 ' = In the opposite direction will be noted the case of Ireland, where the rate is abnormally low; and returns more recent than those included in the table show that of late the rates in Sweden and Norway have also fallen to but little above II per mille. In regard to the necessity of taking into consideration the factor of age in the return of marriage-rates, an example may be here given from the data for England. The rate taken upon the total population was 16-7 per mille in 1870-1871 and 15-3 in 190 5; by excluding the population under fifteen the corresponding figures are 57-2 and 46-6 per mille. Thus the decline, which by the first method is only 8%, becomes, by the second, 19%; and if the age-distribution of 1905 were reduced to that of the earlier period, the difference would increase to 22%, the most accurate figure of the three. For the present purpose it is sufficient to connect the rate of marriage with that of births by using as a basis for the former the number of women of conceptive age, or between 15 and 45 years old. The proportion of these is given in the latter portion of the table. Again taking England as an example, the women of the above ages bore the proportion to the total population of 23% in 1871 and had risen to 25% in 1901; but at the former time, 49-6% were married, whilst thirty years later, only 46-8 were thus situated. The table also shows that the proportion of the women of the ages in question who were married exceeds half only in Italy, France and Germany, not to mention Galicia. In other countries the average proportion is about 45%. In Sweden and Norway it is only 41 and in Ireland less than a third. In Scandinavia, and perhaps in Italy, the rate may be affected by the emigration of adult males, but the later columns of the table indicate that this is not the cause of the low rate in Ireland, which appears to be mainly due to abstinence from marriage at the ages specified.
Next to the proportion of the married to the total marriageable the most important factor connected with the natural increase of the population is the age at which marriage takes place. Where the proportion of the married is high, the average age of the wives is low, and early marriage is conducive to relatively rapid increase. In the first place, the interval between generations is shortened, and the elder is contemporaneous with the younger for a longer period. Then, again, the fecundity of women amongst western peoples is at its maximum between 18 and 25 36. In Irelandand Sweden it is only 28, and in Denmark, Holland and Norway, too, it is below the average. The registrar general of England has pointed out a marked tendency towards the postponement of marriage in that country. Between 1876 and 1905, for instance, the proportion of minors married receded by 43% in the case of men and 32% amongst women. The mean age of husbands married in 1873 was 25-6 years and of wives 24-2, whereas thirty years later the corresponding ages were 28-6 and 26-4. The general results of the decline of the marriage-rate and the postponement of marriage upon the natural growth of population will be discussed in connection with the birth-rate, though the statistics available do not permit of the accurate measurement of the respective influence of these factors, and there are others, too, which have to be taken into consideration, as will appear below.
Births.-Apart from the information which the statistics of birth furnish as to the growth of population, they have, like those of marriage, and perhaps to even a greater extent, a special social interest from their bearings upon the moral conditions of the community to which they relate. It is in their former capacity, however, that they enter into the present subject. A birth-rate, taken as it usually is upon the total population, old and young, is open to the objections made above respecting the marriage-rate, and with even more force, as the basis is itself largely the product of the fact which is being measured by it. The internal variations of the rate in a single community, however, can be fairly indicated in this way, as is done in Table VI., which, it is to be noted, refers to those born alive only and excludes the still-born, statistics regarding whom are incomplete.
The crude birth-rate, it will be noted, is in general harmony with that of marriage. In the countries where the former is high the rate of marriage is also above the average. In eastern Europe, so far as the figures can be trusted, this is markedly the case, and the birth-rates range between 39 per mille in Hungary and 49 in Russia, where the tradition of encouraging prolificity amongst the peasantry has not been effaced. Among the lower rates which prevail in western Europe, however, the connexion is not so direct, and a low birth-rate is sometimes found with a relatively higher marriage rate and vice versa, a deviation from the natural course of events which will
