war conditions would ever again be reproduced in America. Then the crop was increasing slowly, but on the whole steadily, and in 1914 the actual growth was probably not less than 17 million bales, though this record total never came " into sight " during the season. It was clear that, at anything like the 1921 level of prices, and indeed under almost any conditions which could then be visualized as possible, the world could not look to America to equal that figure again or to resume the pre-war rate of increase. The difficulties in America were the extremely variable climate, the scarcity and high cost of labour, and the reduction of the average yield owing to the spread of the boll weevil; and although the cost of production would probably be substantially reduced again, it would take a price very much higher than the 1921 level to tempt the growers back again from the policy of diversification, which they had been taught since the war, to their old policy of cotton and nothing else.
The basic fact of the situation in 1921 was that prices were substantially below the cost of production, and this was a state of affairs which could not continue. It is true that where so much of the labour and cotton is essentially a cheap-labour crop is supplied by the grower himself and his family, they may for a time submit to a reduction of price which will not cover an adequate wage for their labour; but even where mobility of labour is low, as it is in the American cotton belt, such a state of affairs is bound in course of time to have its effect. It did so very strongly during the war when a large quantity of labour left agriculture in the cotton belt for the more highly paid industries in the Southern towns or in the industrial North; and while the subsequent slump had, for the time being reversed this tendency, it was extremely improbable that the South would again become resigned to a permanent lowering of its standard of living, especially as the policy of diversification in itself enabled them to meet this difficulty by supplying many of their requirements from their own land, instead of putting it all under cotton. The probability was, therefore, that it would require a substantially higher price than in pre-war times to induce America to return to her pre-war acreage.
A further point of detail may be noted. Part of the American crop before the war, the Sea Island crop, grown in Florida and Georgia, and on the so-called " Islands " off the coast of South Carolina, was the best cotton in the world, because its staple was the longest and finest; but this crop had by 1920 been virtually wiped out by the advent of the boll weevil in these districts, and the gap thus created would be extremely difficult to fill. The only supply of a similar kind which America could offer was the small crop of excellent cotton of Egyptian charac- ter which had for some years been growing in Arizona and Cali- fornia, especially in the Salt River Valley in the former state. The crop amounted in 1920 to 92,000 bales grown upon a total area of about 256,000 acres; but that was largely due to the high prices of 1919-20 and was not likely to be repeated. For the very best cotton, therefore, the world was entirely dependent on the West Indian Sea Island crop, which, however, was only about 7,000 bales, against the pre-war figure of about 100,000 from Florida and Georgia.
The supply of fine cotton was still further diminished by the serious reduction of the Egyptian crop, due to several causes, of which the most controversial was the view that drainage had not kept pace with irrigation, leading to a rising " water table " and partial water-logging of the lower zones in the Delta. The ravages of the pink boll worm in recent years had also contributed to the reduction of the average yield, which had become serious even before the war, and still more so since 1914. To counteract this reduction would require very heavy expenditure; and the fur- ther development of the Egyptian area was apparently depend- ent on the execution of large irrigation works, the chief of which, the White Nile Dam, above Khartum, had been begun, though work was suspended in the meantime through lack of funds. The most striking development in Egypt, however, had been the replacing of the original Delta type of cotton (Afifi) by the new longer-stapled variety Sakelarides, the best of which has to some extent taken the place of the lost Sea Island.
In view of the reduction of the Egyptian crop the possible development of the Sudan became of the greatest importance. The Gezira scheme, which was expected to provide the larger part of the crop, was also dependent on large irrigation works on the Blue Nile, in course of construction in 1921. Other parts of the Sudan, such as Tokar, Kassala and certain areas on the Nile north of Khartum, were of considerable promise, but large expenditure on transport and irrigation was still required there, especially for the Tokar and Kassala districts.
Great hopes have been entertained of the development of cotton of the ordinary American inch-staple in India, where it is regarded as relatively long-stapled in comparison with the f in. to f in. staple cotton which forms the bulk of the Indian crop. This development has had the active support of the Government, who in 1917 appointed a special commission to make a survey of the whole position (see Report of the Indian Cotton Committee, 1919). For many years to come, however, these improved cottons could not hope to form a large part of the total Indian crop. Since the formation of the -British Cotton-Growing Association in 1902 attention had therefore been directed to other parts of the Empire, and much pioneer work had been done in proving the possibilities of many districts, especially in Africa. Distinct success has been achieved in West Africa, where the best cotton is of a good American type, and in Uganda and Nyasaland, where varieties akin to the American long-stapled upland have been produced. The development of all these districts was, of course, seriously checked by the war, and subsequently by the high cost of the necessary development works, such as transport. The war also left a great gap in the supply of skilled men of all kinds, whose services were everywhere required for the development of new cotton-fields. Everything depends in the first place on the maintenance of an adequate seed supply, which involves not only the finding of a suitable variety, but also the maintenance of a pure supply. Much had also been done in promoting improved methods of agriculture, in provid- ing the necessary facilities for the ginning, baling, and handling of the crop, and for its marketing at adequate prices, especially in the case of superior varieties. In South Africa also excellent cotton had been grown in small quantities, but the necessary organization of the trade had still to be provided before it could be a success on a large scale. Other foreign Powers with colonies in Africa had also done a great deal for the develop- ment of cotton, but 'up to 1920 the total quantity produced in all these new areas in Africa (outside of Egypt) was relatively small, and the time when Africa could produce a million bales of cotton was still far distant (see Report of the Empire Cotton- Growing Committee of the Board of Trade, Cmd. 523, 1920).
In Australia there was little doubt that cotton could be successfully grown, either by rainfall or under irrigation; but there were problems to be faced with regard to the labour supply as well as the ordinary difficulties of organization.
There are many other countries which could provide large additions to the world's cotton supply if all the necessary con- ditions of the successful organization of the industry could be secured. Brazil, for example, could undoubtedly yield a very much larger crop than it has ever done (500,000 bales); but political as well as labour and other economic difficulties are apparently serious. The Argentine is also a country >where excellent staple cotton has been grown, but labour seems to be the chief obstacle to its development on a large scale. Many of the other Latin-American countries, especially Mexico, also have great possibilities for cotton-growing. Peru produced a small crop (about 200,000 bales) of excellent staple cotton, a little below Egyptian in value, but much of it better than the staple American upland. The supply of the latter from America itself suffered a severe loss when the boll weevil appeared in the the Mississippi Valley and drove out the old i% in. long-staple cotton that used to be produced there. Subsequently, however, a great development took place in the production of new staple upland varieties of about ij in. staple in southern Carolina, the Mississippi Valley and northern Texas; but their total supply probably did not exceed 250,000 bales per annum.
