of 1270 lives. Again, if all had been non-abstainers, the deaths would have been 11,727; if all had been abstainers, they would have been 8553, a difference of 3174 deaths. This represents the true measure of the injury done to a number of picked lives by the use of alcohol.
"61. It has been objected that these statistics do not furnish any criterion of the effect of the strictly moderate use of alcohol, because some of those insured in the General Section die of alcoholism, cirrhosis, &c., and are excessive drinkers. It is true that there are some drunkards, and probably some who considerably exceed the limit of one and a half ounces of pure alcohol laid down by Dr. Parkes. As a physiological experiment it is open to the objection to some extent, but yet it is obvious that excessive drinking is not very common among them, because the death claims in the General Section are below the calculated number, notwithstanding that the lives of abstainers are excluded, which would have reduced the number of percentage of claims.
"62. It is extremely probable that if a number of abstainers could be compared with a number of non-abstainers, who never in their whole lives exceeded one ounce of alcohol a day, the difference would not be as great as in the present instance. But this is altogether a hypothetical and, one may almost say, impossible case. The experiment is a fair test of the effects of the moderate use of alcohol, and its consequences under present social conditions. One of the inevitable results of the moderate use of alcohol, is that a percentage of the drinkers will in the course of time increase the amount, and become more or less excessive drinkers. To leave these out of the comparison would be as unfair as to leave out all persons with 'dropped wrist' when comparing those who drank water with lead in it and those who did not. Excessive drinking, due partly to an increased tolerance of alcohol, partly to a growing craving for it, partly to habit and other causes, is one of the morbid consequences of the so-called moderate use of it, just as much as any other pathological change.