In the raisin-growing regions of California, a shower on the fruit curing in the open air causes very great damage. The fruit grower, therefore, is closely observant of the forecast of showers. The expense of stacking his trays, however, is small compared with the loss of his crop or the impairment of its quality, resulting from a shower. It is to the credit of the district forecaster that in many years not a shower has occurred of which timely warning was not given.
Recently a West Indian hurricane threatened the Gulf Coast and warnings were duly issued. Precautions were taken as indicated; but, by the time the hurricane reached the Gulf Coast, not much energy was left in it. But what would have been the result had the warnings been omitted and the hurricane had possessed the violence of the storms which destroyed Galveston and Corpus Christi?
It is the desire of the Weather Bureau to prevent loss by forewarning. The district forecasters do not strain points for high percentages of verification. A row of failures may be discouraging; a mistake against the forecaster may make him a target of derision; but a mistake which results in loss of life is irreparable. Therefore, in making forecasts, it is “safety first.”
Those who make intelligent use of Weather Bureau predictions realize that forecasts are not insurance policies. They merely are expressions which represent the experience and judgment of the best-trained meteorologists. In one particular the dissemination of weather forecasts might be made even more valuable—namely, by issuing a map and forecasts based on the 8:00 p.m. reports, to be published in the morning papers. When the public decides that it really wants this information, the information will be forthcoming. As a rule, the public gets what it deserves, but not always what it needs.
Popular Weather Prediction—Folklore[1]
- ↑ The material for much of this chapter is inspired by Professor Edward Garriott’s Weather Folklore, published by the U. S. Weather Bureau.
