Our ability to restore order in Mexico would depend largely upon the sort of welcome we would receive from the Mexicans. If our efforts were resented and opposed—as they certainly would be—it is obvious that there would at once be a great deal more disorder than ever before. We would have a war on our hands to begin with, and after that a condition of "banditry" infinitely more aggravated than the present one. For every Mexican patriot would turn "bandit."
The experience of the present and of the past is against any theory that we could "restore order" within any reasonable period. We sent an expedition in force to "catch Villa." It returned unsuccessful at the end of eleven months and only after the expenditure of $100,000,000 of the people's money. American forces have been fighting, unlawfully, to "restore order" in Haiti ever since July, 1915, and in Santo Domingo ever since May, 1916, but order is far from restored in either. If we are incapable of "ending banditry" with the iron heel in these countries, how can we expect to succeed in a similar effort in Mexico, whose power of resistance is incomparably greater?
Between the Cuba of 1898 and the Mexico of 1920 there is no fair basis of comparison. We went into Cuba with the consent of the Cubans, who were persuaded of our unselfish sympathy for Cuban independence. We would go into Mexico with the opposition of the Mexicans, who could only view our action as an effort to destroy their independence.
We have indulged in much self-praise of our "unselfish" Cuban record, but there is nothing unselfish about it. For we never relinquished control of Cuba, nor permitted the Cubans to enjoy the independence for which they fought. Although in the end we withdrew our army, we refused to withdraw it until the Cubans had revised their Constitution, ceding the United States a portion of their territory and acknowledging our "right" to intervene at will. Today we hold Cuba in political and economic subjection.
Nevertheless, our Cuban record is a fairer record than our Philippine record, our Haitien record, our Santo Domingan record, or our Nicaraguan record. The evidence is all against the theory that we could do as well in Mexico.
We are told that we could "set up a stable government" without a war of conquest. But if the Mexicans would resist,
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