This paper does not represent US Government views.
Annex B: Knowledge Deficiencies that Preclude a Full Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on Russia and Russia’s Adaptive Capacity
In order to increase the likelihood that this evaluation represents a reasonable assessment of Russia’s projected climate changes and their impacts, and the country’s adaptive capacity, the following gaps would need to be addressed:
- In physical science research, regional analyses will continue to be limited by the inability to model regional climates satisfactorily, including complexities arising from the interaction of global, regional, and local processes. One gap of particular interest is the lack of medium-term (20-30 years) projections that could be relied upon for planning purposes. Similarly, scientific projections of water supply and agricultural productivity are limited by inadequate understanding of various climate and physical factors affecting both areas. Research agendas in these areas can be found in, for instance, the synthesis and assessment reports of the US Climate Change Science Program (http://www.climatescience.gov) and the National Academy of Sciences (e.g., http://books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11175#toc). Similar types of issues exist for the biological and ecological systems that are affected.
- In social science research, scientists and analysts have only partial understandings of the important factors in vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity—much less their interactions and evolution. Again, research agendas on vulnerability, adaptation, and decision-making abound (e.g., (http://books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12545).
- Important factors are unaccounted for in research; scientists know what some of them are, but there are likely factors whose influence will be surprising. An example from earlier research on the carbon cycle illustrates this situation. The first carbon cycle models did not include carbon exchanges involving the terrestrial domain. Modelers assumed that the exchange was about equal, and the only factor modeled was deforestation. This assumption, of course, made the models inadequate for their purposes. In another example, ecosystems research models are only beginning to account for changes in pests, e.g., the pine bark beetle.
- Social models or parts of models in climate research have been developed to simulate consumption (with the assumption of well-functioning markets and rational actor behavior) and mitigation/adaptation policies (but without attention to the social feasibility of enacting or implementing such policies). As anthropogenic climate change is the result of human decisions, the lack of knowledge about motivation, intent, and behavior is a serious lack.
Overall, research about climate change impacts on Russia has been undertaken piecemeal: discipline by discipline, sector by sector, with political implications separately considered from physical effects. This knowledge gap can be remedied by integrated research into energy-economic-environmental-political conditions and possibilities.
45
This paper does not represent US Government views.
