194 Journal of American Folk-Lore*
io to midnight, Fair, Fair and frosty.
o to 2 A. M., Fair, Hard frost, unless wind S. or S. W.
2 to 4, Cold with showers, Snow and stormy.
4 to 6, Rain, Snow and stormy.
6 to 8, Wind and rain, Stormy.
8 to io, Changeable, Cold rain, wind W., snow, E.
io to noon, Frequent showers, Cold with high wind.
I am aware that serious attempts have been made to prove that this table was not published till after Herschel's death. After a long hunt, however, I found the original publication in the " Euro- pean Magazine" for July, 1811, and as Herschel did not die till eleven years after that date, the usual and only argument I have ever heard against his authorship falls to the ground.
It should be noted that the saying, "The moon at or just after its full has power to eat up clouds," has a curious scientific backing. It is probable that many have noticed a gradual breaking away of clouds near full moon, especially if the moon is seen through a thin veil of clouds. The full moon rises just as the sun sets, and at this time the heat of the sun is so moderated that its tendency to pro- duce clouds is at a minimum ; two or three hours later nocturnal cooling will begin another regime of clouds, but at this time most observers are asleep. We find from a long series of observations that the minimum of cloudiness in the twenty-four hours is from 8 p. m. to midnight.
Auguries professing to have an astronomical basis may be no more reasonable than those derived from natural objects. In a German scale published as early as 1507, if one would forecast the future, he is directed : If you would know the future, " cut a gall apple into two or three pieces ; if you find therein flies, it betokens war the next year ; if you find a little worm, the year will be fat and fruitful ; if you find there a spider, so there will be deaths."
Equally untrustworthy are the forecasts of a coming winter, which are so frequently made from observations of planets, the behavior of animals, and so on. In the winter of 1893-94 there were made special notes of such predictions which were directly opposite each other. In New York, Chenango County, was published the state- ment that the thick husks of corn of a deep orange tint ; the goose bone being larger and whiter than usual ; the crops of nuts immense in quantity and squirrels laying in great stores of them ; the par- tridges and woodcocks fearlessly approaching farmyards ; and ducks flying in U shaped instead of V shaped flocks toward the south, — all indicated an unusually early and severe winter. Two weeks later a farmer in Pennsylvania predicted a mild winter from the fact that toads were hopping about in November; meadow moles were
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