(U) IC ASSESSMENTS ON COVID-19 ORIGINS
(U) In March, the IC updated its analysis on core intelligence questions related to COVID-19 origins, to include whether the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2—the virus that causes COVID-19—was the result of natural exposure to an infected animal or a laboratory-associated incident. Variations in IC analytic views on the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic largely stem from differences in how agencies weigh intelligence reporting and scientific publications and intelligence and scientific gaps. All agencies continue to assess that both a natural and laboratory-associated origin remain plausible hypotheses to explain the first human infection.
- The National Intelligence Council and four other IC agencies assess that the initial human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was caused by natural exposure to an infected animal that carried SARS-CoV-2 or a close progenitor, a virus that probably would be more than 99 percent similar to SARS-CoV-2.
- The Department of Energy and the Federal Bureau of Investigation assess that a laboratory-associated incident was the most likely cause of the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2, although for different reasons.
- The Central Intelligence Agency and another agency remain unable to determine the precise origin of the COVID-19 pandemic, as both hypotheses rely on significant assumptions or face challenges with conflicting reporting.
- Almost all IC agencies assess that SARS-CoV-2 was not genetically engineered. Most agencies assess that SARS-CoV-2 was not laboratory-adapted; some are unable to make a determination. All IC agencies assess that SARS-CoV-2 was not developed as a biological weapon.
(U) WIV ACTIVITIES PERFORMED WITH OR ON BEHALF OF THE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY
The WIV is a civilian research institute founded in the 1950s by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Although the WIV is independent of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the IC assesses that WIV personnel have worked with scientists associated with the PLA on public health-related research and collaborated on biosafety and biosecurity projects. Information available to the IC indicates that some of the research conducted by the PLA and WIV included work with several viruses, including coronaviruses, but no known viruses that could plausibly be a progenitor of SARS-CoV-2. For example, PLA researchers have used WIV laboratories for virology and vaccine-related work.
- Between 2017 and 2019, the WIV funded and some of its personnel conducted research projects to enhance China’s knowledge of pathogens and early disease warning capabilities for defensive and biosecurity needs of the military.
- (U Prior to collaborating on a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2, the WIV collaborated with the PLA on other vaccine and therapeutics relevant to coronaviruses. The IC assesses that this work was intended for public health needs
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