Page:PettyWilliam1899EconomicWritingsVol2.djvu/177

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482
Observations upon the

or Sixth part whereof is 12280, which is about Five eighth parts of the Burials; and shews, that London would in time decrease quite away, were it not supplyed out of the Countrey, where are about Five Births for Four Burials, the proportion of Breeders in the Country being greater than in the City.

3. The Burials in Dublin for the said Six years, were 9865, the Sixth part or Medium whereof is, 1644, which is about the Twelfth part of the London-Burials; and about a Fifth part over. So as the people of London do hereby seem to be above Twelve times as many as those of Dublin.

4. The Births in the same time at Dublin, are 6157, the Sixth part or Medium whereof is 1026, which is also about five eighth parts of the 1644 Burials; which shews, that the |3| proportion between Burials and Births are alike at London and Dublin, and that the Accompts are kept alike; and consequently are likely to be true, there being no Confederacy for that purpose: Which if they be true, we then say,

5. That the Births are the best way[1] (till the Accompts of the people shall be purposely taken) whereby to judge of the Increase and Decrease of People, that of Burials being subject to more Contingencies and variety of Causes.

6. If Births be as yet the measure of the People, and that the Births (as has been shewn) are as Five to Eight, then Eight fifths of the Births is the number of the Burials, where the year was not considerable for extraordinary Sickness or Salubrity; and is the Rule whereby to measure the same. As for Example: The Medium of Births in Dublin was 1026, the Eight fifths whereof is 1641, but the real Burials were 1644; so as in said years they differed little from the 1641, which was the Standard of Health; and consequently, the years 1680, 1674, and 1668, were sickly years, more or less, as they exceeded the said Number 1641; and the rest were healthful years, more or less, as they fell short of the same number. But the City was more or less Populous, as the Births differ-|4|ed from the Number 1026; viz. Populous in the years 1680, 1679, 1678, & 1668: For

  1. On the deficiencies of the London birth returns see Graunt, p. 361, also Introduction.