between the men of science and the men of business, and I am sure that you will pardon me if I draw my illustrations from that subject with which I am most familiar—the production of iron.
In 1856 I had occasion to trace the history of the manufacture of iron, and established what may be termed its law of development, rather rude indeed, but plainly dependent upon the growth of population and the spread of civilization throughout the world. At that time the annual production of iron had reached about 7,000,000 tons, of which Great Britain produced 3,500,000 tons, and the United States about 1,000,000 tons. The consumption of Great Britain was 144 pounds, and of the United States 84 pounds, while the average consumption of the world was only 17 pounds, per head, of population. It was shown that the consumption per head was steadily on the increase, and that consequently the annual production was enlarging so rapidly as to double once in 14 years; and it was predicted, after making due allowances for all the drawbacks, such as the wars which have unhappily taken place in the interval, beyond any possible expectation, that in 1875 the production of iron would surely reach 14,000,000 tons. The actual returns show that in 1871 the production amounted to 13,500,000 tons, and in 1872 the limit 14,000,000 will undoubtedly be passed, so that the estimate made in 1856 is more than realized. Meanwhile the consumption has risen in England to 200 pounds, in the United States to 150 pounds, and in the whole world to 30 pounds, per head. It is not possible to convey a more striking idea of the progress of the world, during the last 17 years, than this statement affords. The consumption of iron measures the progress of civilization, and it is impossible not to believe that the whole world will ultimately require as much iron per head as we now use in the United States, when a total annual production of over 70,000,000 tons will be required. But, if these figures seem to be at all wild, no one can for a moment doubt that the next 17 years will double the present annual production of iron, bringing it up to 28,000,000 tons per annum; and I feel quite safe in asserting that the beginning of the twentieth century, which some among you may hope to see, will witness an annual production of over 40,000,000 tons.
You need not be told that iron is produced at less money-cost in Great Britain than in any other quarter of the globe. This has enabled her to produce about one-half of the total annual make. Of the 7,000,000 tons made in 1855, Great Britain produced 3,585,906 tons, and, of the 13,500,000 tons produced last year, she turned out nearly 7,000,000 tons. It it is evident, however, that there are limits in the way of raw material and labor beyond which Great Britain cannot go. While I see no reason to doubt that there will be a steady increase in production, it is evident that she will not be able to supply hereafter, as heretofore, so much as half the annual wants of the world for iron. But, allowing this proportion to Great Britain, there will still remain
