nine per cent, of piety. And yet these creatures are quoted and exploited, their forecasts are printed in a conspicuous manner and they are encouraged to fleece the ignorant by the authority and circulation given them even by metropolitan journalism.
The spectacle is stultifying, and yet, in the face of this, in the face of the fact that Weather Bureau stations in the great centers of population have been compelled to phrase their forecasts in primer English, because 'cyclone' and 'anti-cyclone' puzzled the newspapers and frightened the people, whose idea had been formed on newspaper interpretation of the forecasts; because 'highs' and 'lows' were deemed too mysterious for comprehension; in face of all this humiliating confusion, the forecasts, if they err, are criticized in a way that not only brings out all the old, but a new ignorance that is as invincible as it is hypercritical, and raises a popular prejudice against the Weather Bureau wholly unwarranted by the facts. Making no quack claims, the Bureau officials are discredited as to short-range or long-range forecasts, while the Wigginses and Devoes take the tripod and scatter storms, floods and dooms, as the irresponsible bad boy splashes water, and are acclaimed therefor. The essential fundamental difficulty of the question of forecasts is—aside from the blank misunderstanding of forecasts that are verified by results—that those who criticize forecasting not only exaggerate the percentage of error, but are wholly oblivious to the fact that forecasting is an art rather than a science. The art is based on science, and as the science improves so will the art; but being an art, the personal equation—knowledge of facts being equal—plays a very important part in results. If criticism were directed to any real shortcomings in the Bureau's organization, the Bureau's interests would be promoted; but here, as in other features of weather discussion, the real issues not being apprehended, the discussion is usually pointless and without result. Equipped as the average first-class American newspaper is in plant and staff, alert, keenly anxious to be up to date, impatient of humbug, a unique opportunity is given it by the first year of the new century—always a season of repentance—for that about-face in its treatment of the weather that its past lapses in this respect and the pressing importance of the subject demand.
