Graduate families are, as these figures show, not only not smaller, but they are larger than those of the native-born American population of all classes, and larger than would have been expected from what is known of the relative fecundity of rich and poor in other countries. The relation of the educated and professional classes to the masses, to the laboring or artisan class, however, is the same as that shown for Copenhagen by Rubin and Westergaard, the total number of offspring born being somewhat larger for the family of the artisan; the real family, the number of the surviving, on the contrary, being somewhat larger for the educated, for the reason of the lower death rate in such families.
The rate of child-birth has been decreasing in college families, but it has been decreasing throughout the civilized world, slowly in the old world, with astonishing rapidity in the new, that is, among the native American-born of our population, until it has reached a minimum; the number of children to the native American family of all classes (and in this lies the danger) being less than it is in any other country, France even not excepted, which has long been known to be at the point of stagnation.
These are facts; the figures have all been elaborated and repeatedly presented so that any hypothesis is unnecessary. The American population is not holding its own; it is not reproducing itself, and the highly educated do not stand alone in this.
Important as is the fact of our racial decline, bearing as it does upon our future as a nation, it has not been observed, because of the fair general rate of child-birth, due to the much greater fecundity of the foreign element, which is from 2 to 21⁄2 times that of the native, thus bringing the total birth rate of the state to an equality with that of France,—22.4 per 1,000 living population, or above it.
This is true of six representative states, for which we have fairly reliable statistics; in some, the birth rate is distinctly higher than that of France, as high as 26 and 28 per 1,000, but even in such states, that of the native-born is far below that of France. So in Massachusetts, with a total birth rate for the state of 27.78, practically 28 per 1,000 living population, that of the native-born is only 17, whilst that of the foreigner is over 52 per 1,000.
The net fertility, the total number of children born is 2.1 in France, and for the native population of the above state it is said to be 2.17 for 3,015 graduates from 25 classes 1870-80, in five eastern colleges it is 2.34. But these figures may be ignored, as it is not the total number of children born, but the surviving who add to the population, and it is these whom we consider: the surviving children of college graduates, 2.7 for Princeton, 2.28 for Yale, 1.86 and 1.88
