Page:Popular Science Monthly Volume 68.djvu/544

them is approximately known already; so that, if the presumed connection between them and earthquakes is confirmed, we may be able to predict periods of great earthquake frequency. Such periods would be in some respects analogous to the times of spring-tides. It is a familiar fact that at new and full moon the tides are much greater than when the moon is at the quarters. The reason is that we have two tide-raising bodies, the moon and the sun, which sometimes act in concert, and then we get large tides; sometimes in opposition, and then we get small tides. If the influence of these two bodies were more nearly equal, instead of the moon being so predominant a partner, we can imagine times when the tides would be barely perceptible. Similarly there are apparently two contributors to the variation in our earth's rotation, which sometimes act in unison and sometimes in opposition. They are more nearly equal in influence than are our moon and sun; and consequently there are times when these two contributors nearly balance one another and the axis of rotation remains almost steady. But in due time the contributors reinforce one another and the axis acquires a considerable 'wobble.' Each end of the axis then describes a curve composed of wide sweeps and sharp bends; and the evidence seems to be that at the sharp bends we are particularly liable to earthquakes. The exact statement of the case as given by Professor Milne in his Bakerian lecture, 'Recent Advances in Seismology,' delivered before the Royal Society, on March 22, last, is as follows:

In a period of nearly thirteen years (1892 to 1904) I find records for at least 750 world-shaking earthquakes, which may be referred to three periods continuous with each other, and each two-tenths of a year or 73 days' duration. The first period occurred when the pole movement followed an approximately straight line or curve of large radius, the second equal period when it was undergoing deflection or following a path of short radius, and the third when the movement was similar to that of the first period. The numbers of earthquakes in each of these periods taken in the order named were 211, 307 and 232—that is to say, during the period when the change in direction of motion has been comparatively rapid the relief of seismic strain has not only been marked, but it has been localized along the junctions of land blocks and land plains where we should expect to find that the stress due to change in direction of motion was at a maximum. Until the magnitude of these induced stresses has been estimated it would be premature to assume that the frequency under consideration is directly due to change in direction of pole movement, it being quite as likely that both phenomena may result from a general cause.

It is eminently to be desired that a mathematical investigation of the point should be undertaken; but the difficulties are very great, and as yet no one has had the time and courage to attack them. It will be seen, then, that the seismologist is as yet not able to give forecasts of any commercial value, though he is by no means without hope of doing so.