tion, the one comprising those who took thought for the morrow and the other comprising those who did not. Such an exact contrast is, of course, unattainable. But it so happens that we do possess, over a term of nearly forty years, the number of children born in one large sample of the population, selected, it might almost be said, solely by the characteristic of thrift. The Hearts of Oak Friendly Society, the largest centralized benefit society in the kingdom, has now over 272,000 adult male members. This membership belongs to all parts of the United Kingdom, of which it may be said to represent about 3 per cent., or no inconsiderable sample. No one is admitted who is not of good character and in receipt of wages at least 24s. per week, a figure which excludes the agricultural laborer, the unskilled worker in town or country, and even (outside London) the lowest grades of skilled artisans. The society consists, in fact, of the artisan and skilled mechanic class, with some intermixture of the small shopkeeper and others who have risen into the lower middle class. Among its provisions is the 'lying-in benefit,' a payment of 30s. for each confinement of a member's wife. Unfortunately, we do not know either the relative proportions of the members who are married, or the average age of the wives. There is, however, no reason to think that the proportion of married members has appreciably changed, whilst it is believed that the average age of the members as a whole has risen from about 33 to 37.52; and it may possibly be inferred that there is a corresponding increase in the average age of the wives. Judging from the evidence of the Scottish census of 1855,[1] we might in such an event have expected a falling off in the births, due to this assumed difference of age, of at most 15 per cent. Now, what are the facts? From 1866 to 1880 the proportion of lying-in claims to membership rose slowly from 2,176 to 2,472 per 10,000. From 1881 to 1904 it continuously declined, until in the latter year it reached only 1,165 per 10,000 members. The birth rate among the population of a million and a quarter persons, distinguished from the rest, so far as is known, only by one common characteristic, that of thrift, has fallen off between 1881 and 1901 by no less than 46 per cent., or a decline nearly three times as great as that during the same period in England and Wales. Taking the whole period of decline, from 1880 down to the latest year for which I have the statistics, 1904, the falling off is over 52 per cent. A smaller society, the Royal Standard Benefit Society, having 8,225 members and giving a similar benefit, shows similar results. Between 1881 and 1901 the proportion of members claiming the lying-in benefit fell off by more than 56 per cent. If the members of the Hearts of Oak Friendly Society and the Royal Standard Benefit Society had had pro-
- ↑ See the figures given in 'Fertility, Fecundity and Sterility,' by J. Matthews Duncan, 1871; and those in 'Natality and Fecundity,' by C. J. and J. N. Lewis, 1906, pp. 18, 26 and 33.
