delay cost estimates that we could gather in a standardized form, that is, we conduct a metaanalysis of the literature on delay cost estimates.
Effect on Costs of Climate Targets, Length of Delay, and International Coordination
Climate Targets
Researchers estimate a range of climate and economic impacts from a given concentration of GHGs and find that delaying action is much costlier for more stringent targets. Two recent major modeling simulation projects conducted by the Energy Modeling Forum (Clarke et al. 2009) and by AMPERE (Riahi et al. 2014) consider the economic costs of delaying policies to reach a range of CO2e concentration targets from 450 to 650 ppm in 2100. In the Energy Modeling Forum simulations in Clarke et al. (2009), the median additional cost (global present value) for a 20-year delay is estimated to be $0.7 trillion for 650 ppm CO2e but a substantially greater $4.7 trillion for 550 ppm CO2e. Many of the models in these studies suggest that delay causes a target of 450 ppm CO2e to be much more costly to achieve, or possibly even infeasible.
Length of Delay
The longer the delay, the greater the cumulative emissions before action begins and the shorter the available time to meet a given target. Several recent studies examine the cost implications of delayed climate action and find that even a short delay can add substantial costs to meeting a stringent concentration target, or even make the target impossible to meet. For example, Luderer et al. (2012) find that delay from 2010 to 2020 to stabilize CO2 concentration levels at 450 ppm by 2100 raises mitigation cost by 50 to 700 percent.[1] Furthermore, Luderer et al. find that delay until 2030 renders the 450 ppm target infeasible. Edmonds et al. (2008) find that additional mitigation costs of delay by newly developed and developing countries are substantial. In fact, they find that stabilizing CO2 concentrations at 450 ppm even for a relatively short delay from 2012 to 2020 increases costs by 28 percent over the idealized case, and a delay to 2035 increased costs by more than 250 percent.
International Coordination
Meeting stringent climate targets with action from only one country or a small group of countries is difficult or impossible, making international coordination of policies essential. Recent research shows, however, that even if a delay in international mitigation efforts occurs, unilateral or fragmented action reduces the costs of delay: although immediate coordinated international action is the least costly approach, unilateral action is less costly than doing nothing.[2] More specifically, Jakob et al. (2012) consider a 10-year delay of mitigation efforts to reach a 450 ppm CO2 target by 2100 and find that global mitigation costs increase by 43 to 700 percent if all countries begin mitigation efforts in 2020 rather than 2010. However, early action in 2010 by more developed countries reduces this increase to 29 to 300 percent. In a similar scenario,
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- ↑ We present a range of cost estimates which comes from the three IAMs – ReMIND-R, WITCH and IMACLIM-R – used by Luderer et al. (2012). These scenarios also allow temporary overshoot of the target.
- ↑ Waldhoff and Fawcett (2011) find that early mitigation action by industrialized economies significantly reduces the likelihood of large temperature changes in 2100 while also increasing the likelihood of lower temperature changes, relative to a no policy scenario.
