and treasure), men had need to pray for fair weather. But let us pass from this part of predictions (concerning which, nevertheless, more light may be taken from that which followeth); and let us speak first of the materials of seditions; then of the motives of them; and thirdly of the remedies.
Concerning the materials of seditions. It is a thing well to be considered; for the surest way to prevent seditions (if the times do bear it) is to take away the matter of them. For if there be fuel prepared, it is hard to tell whence the spark shall come that shall set it on fire. The matter of seditions is of two kinds: much poverty and much discontentment. It is certain, so many overthrown estates, so many votes for troubles. Lucan noteth well the state of Rome before the Civil War,
Hinc usura vorax, rapidumque in tempore fœnus,
Hinc concussa fides, et multis utile bellum.
[Hence estates eaten up by usurious rates of interest, and interest greedy of time, hence credit shaken, and war a gain to many.]
This same multis utile bellum is an assured and infallible sign of a state disposed to seditions and troubles. And if this poverty and broken estate in the better sort be joined with a want and necessity in the mean people, the danger is imminent and great. For the rebellions of the belly[1] are the worst. As for discontentments, they are in the politic body like to humors in the natural, which are apt to gather a preternatural heat and to inflame. And let no prince measure the danger of them by this, whether they be just or unjust: for that were to imagine people to be too reasonable; who do often spurn at their own good: nor yet by this, whether the griefs whereupon they rise be in fact great or small: for they are the most dangerous discontentments where the fear is greater than the feeling. Dolendi modus, timendi non item [Suffering has its limit, but fears are endless]. Besides, in great oppressions, the same things that provoke the patience, do withal mate[2] the courage; but in fears it is not so. Neither let any prince or state be secure[3] concerning discontentments, because they have been often, or have been long, and yet no
