The annual cost would continue after 1960 at approximately the same average annual rate; and, until 1975, when the indebtedness would be completely retired, it would include the regular annual payment for debt service. The total of these payments over the 30-year period would be $4,212,032,130; and the difference between this amount and the $2,899,770,145 borrowed, or $1,312,261,985, represents the total cost of borrowing. This $1,312,261,985 of direct finance cost is 45.3 percent of the net cost of construction.
With payment of the sixteenth annual installment of the 4.84 percent debt service charge at the end of the year 1960, approximately 44 percent of the debt would have been retired. On the basis of the composite service life of 65.5 years, as previously estimated for all elements of the facilities, and assuming a straight-line depreciation, the accumulated depreciation by 1960 would be less than 25 percent. Comparison of the residual value of more than 75 percent with the unretired 56 percent of the debt, indicates adequate security for the refinancing of any necessary reconstruction.
COMPARISON OF REVENUES AND COSTS
For the entire system and 75 constituent sections, what is believed to be the maximum possible estimate of toll-paying traffic that would have used the selected routes in 1937 is shown in table 2. (See p. 24.) The total for all routes is 5,823,745 vehicle-miles per day, or 2,125,666,925 vehicle-miles per year. These estimates are based on actual traffic counts made during the year 1937.
In consideration of growth trends of population and motor-vehicle registration and the increased annual travel of vehicles, it has been estimated (see pp. 33 and 34) that utilization of the system in 1960 would be 2.5 times the 1937 value, and that the accumulated utilization during the period 1945 to 1960, inclusive, would be 34.2 times the 1937 value. It has not been considered advisable to attempt to estimate traffic beyond the year 1960.
It has been concluded that the toll rates that would probably produce the most favorable return for the system as a whole would average 1 cent per mile for each passenger car and 3.5 cents per mile for each motortruck and bus, the latter rate varying considerably with the weight and capacity of the vehicles. Assuming motortruck and bus traffic to constitute 20 percent of the total traffic, these rates result in an approximate average rate of 1% cents per mile for each vehicle without regard to type.
This rate has been applied to the forecast vehicle mileage for the year 1960 and for the period 1945-60, for the system as a whole and for each of the 75 sections previously identified, and the corresponding gross revenues are shown respectively in tables 18 and 19. For the entire system of 14,336 miles, the gross revenue for the year 1960 totals $84,037,000, as shown in table 18. For the period 1945-60 the revenues are estimated at a total of $1,154,237,000, as shown in table 19.[1]
- ↑ About 5.5 percent of these gross earnings are derived from special bridge tolls collectible where no free competition exists.
