In reporting this visit Tsêng found reasons both for discouragement and for hope. On the one hand (a) poor villagers along the river had been forced to escape for safety to the islands where many had perished; (b) so widespread was the devastation of fields in Chekiang and Kiangsu that the rebels faced a shortage of supplies which led them to consider a general retirement into Kiangsi — a very serious possibility if realised;[1] (c) reconquered regions in Anhui and Chekiang, still subject to wandering rebels (and if popular reports were correct, even more to imperialists), could not yet be brought under cultivation; and (d) Li Shi-chung was losing battles — P'ukow and other small places had just fallen — under circumstances that suggested treachery. His dismissal was necessary.
Elements of hope, on the contrary, were: (a) the very lack of agriculture, which brought the danger of a general retirement inland, was also weakening the rebels so that they could not hold out much longer; (b) most of the strongholds and strategic points east and south of Nanking were in the hands of the government; and (c) amid all the disappointments and hardships the spirits of the army remained good. Not the slightest murmur of disloyalty was heard.[2]
While Tsêng was on this journey some rebel bands were driven into the Poyang area of Kiangsi, and others into the Huichow and Keemun regions. By this time Tso Tsung-tang, having captured Kinhwa (March 1) and Shaohsing (March 13), together with several other districts in eastern Chekiang,[3] felt strong enough to spare
