philosophical matters to theological uses. While writing his lectures[1] with this in view, he happened upon Graunt's book, which caused him to see that the constant proportion of marriages to births and of births to burials constitutes "a wise means to keep the balance of mankind even;" and he concludes his discussion by asking "upon the whole matter, what is all this but admirable plan and management? What can the maintaining, throughout all ages and places, of these proportions of mankind, and all other creatures; this harmony in the generations of man be but the work of One that ruleth the world?[2]" Of themselves Derham's remarks, which are but incidental to a comprehensive argument from design, would be of small significance in the history of statistics. But they chanced, because they were in a theological book, to fall into the hands of a Prussian tutor and military chaplain, who made them matter for investigation.
Johann Peter Süssmilch (1707-1767) was not, as Roscher asserts[3], the first to make the growth of population a subject of independent investigation on its own account[4]: Graunt certainly anticipated him in that. But he was perhaps the first who clearly grasped the fact, which escaped Graunt, that when and only when sufficiently large numbers are taken into account, order and not accident appear. It is not my intention to describe Süssmilch's book, the great ability of which is now everywhere recognized. But since many of his countrymen have represented him as the founder of statistics in the modern sense, or of vital statistics, it is worth while to point out that Süssmilch himself considers Graunt his master. "Die göttliche Ordnung" was first suggested, he tells us, by
- ↑ Physico-theology; or a Demonstration of the Being and Attributes of God from his Works of Creation. 1713. I cite the "new edition" of 1798.
- ↑ Ibid., i., 267.
- ↑ Geschichte der Nationalökonomik in Deutschland, 421.
- ↑ The title of Süssmilch's book shows plainly that, like Derham, he was interested primarily in the theological implications of vital statistics. It runs: Die göttliche Ordnung in den Veranderungen des menschlichen Geschlechts aus der Geburt, dem Tode und der Fortpflanzung desselben erwiesen...worin die Regeln der Ordnung bewiesen werden, welche Gottes Weisheit und Güte in dem Lauf der Natur zur Erhaltung, Vermehrung und Verdopplung des menschlichen Geschlechts festgesetzt hat,... Berlin, J. C. Spener, 1741. I cite the pirated ed. published at Berlin by Gahls in 1742. See W. F. Willcox and F. S. Crum, A trial bibliography of the writings of Süssmilch., Publ, Amer. Statistical Assn, V. 310—314.
