39. The number of real-world organised ERWT groups in the UK remains low and the high-profile disruptions of National Action members since the group's proscription in December 2016, and subsequent proscriptions of aliases for the group, have probably dissuaded others from forming similar groups in the UK. More recently, the Government's proscription of Sonnenkrieg Division (SKD) in February 2020, and Feuerkrieg Division in July 2020, has strengthened the perception of the UK as a hostile operating environment for ERWT groups. JTAC assesses that "it is unlikely that a RW terrorist group *** in the UK in the near future".[1] However, the online space has proved to be an effective platform for Extreme Right-Wing (XRW) individuals and groups to exert influence and recruit others—it is possibly irrelevant ***.
40. We asked if JTAC used specific criteria to determine if particular rhetoric reaches a specific benchmark for analysis in assessing the ERWT threat. They advised that setting a threshold could in fact limit their ability to develop a holistic understanding of the threat, and that it was important to analyse all data and information that contribute to radicalisation, recruitment and attack planning when assessing the ERWT threat: "for instance, Darren Osborne was reportedly galvanised to conduct a ERWT attack by his interpretation of, and reaction to, mainstream media."[2]
The trajectory
41. MI5 advises that it is difficult to establish an accurate historical trajectory of the ERWT threat on the grounds that the recent increase in focus by HMG and heightened public awareness of the ERWT threat has contributed to an increase in referrals and investigations. However, the Director General of MI5 did observe that "2016 felt like a bit of a turning point with the proscription of National Action and the death of Jo Cox MP."[3]
42. A further factor is that the ERWT threat may have been understated in the past—some incidents previously classified as racially motivated hate crimes might now be labelled as ERWT offences, based on evidence and a greater understanding of the threat and how it has evolved. MI5's own analysis acknowledges the need for:
greater scrutiny of definitions and thresholds of the ERWT threat to ensure consensus and consistency of casework classification across agencies. This will ensure more accurate and reliable data to track the ERWT threat trajectory going forwards.[4]
How the ERWT threat could develop
The ERWT threat is on an upward trajectory, as demonstrated by the increasing number of convictions for ERWT offences. It is particularly worrying that the ERWT space is now populated by an increasing number of young people—the Director General of MI5 informed the Committee that a significant percentage of MI5's Subjects of Interest (SOIs) are under 24.[5] The demographic is considered later in this Report.
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