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INTRODUCTION
Research Information Network (RIN) has commissioned CEPA to provide analysis of the costs to the UK of transitioning to a situation where there is a greater proportion of author-side payments or “Gold Open Access”. This analysis is a follow-up to previous work by RIN, CEPA and Mark Ware (i.e. the Heading for the Open Road report, hereafter referred to as ‘OR Report’).
In response to similar work which has been undertaken by other stakeholders, this note carries out additional sensitivity analysis on the Gold Scenario in the OR Report.
There are two key conceptual differences between the results in this note and those in the OR Report:
- First, the sensitivities here have been based on UK article output and funding in 2010, as opposed to a forecast 2015 Baseline (in the OR report), which itself was dependent on a series of assumptions.
- Second, we have set the starting point article processing charge (APC) at the ‘breakeven’ point for academic institutions (as opposed to all institutions in the OR report). This means that the sensitivities are concerned with the point at which it is possible that UK academic institutions would become indifferent (at the margin) between subscriptions and author-side payments.
Notwithstanding these changes, all of the caveats relating to the Gold Scenario modelling set out in the OR Report apply here. (For example, the breakeven points relate to ‘average’ institutions; and the analysis of costs assumes that publishers reduce subscription prices in proportion to the increase in Gold OA articles).
The sensitivities covered in this note are:
| Sensitivity 1 | Sensitivity 2 | Sensitivity 3 | Sensitivity 4 |
| The level of article processing charge (APC) | The level of Gold uptake in the UK and globally | The level of Gold uptake in rest of world versus UK | The % of corresponding authors from the UK |
ASSUMPTIONS
Assumptions that we have used to define the Gold OA Scenario in this note, which differ from those in the OR Report, include:
- a) Number of articles produced. As requested by RIN, we have updated the model inputs to reflect two estimates, from a recent BIS commissioned report, for article production:
- The UK produced 123,594 articles in 2010.
- The world produced 1,935,954 articles in 2010.[1]
- ↑ Both of these figures are taken from ‘International Comparative Performance of the UK Research Base’, A report prepared for the Department of Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS), Appendix F: Supplementary Data, page 26.
