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Sensitivity 1 - Level of APC
Table 0.4: Results of sensitivity 1 (figures in £m)[1]
| Cost Category | Central Case | Sensitivity 1: APC | |||||
| -20% | -10% | +10% | +20% | +50% | |||
| Academic Institutions | Author-side payments | 22.0 | 17.6 (-4.4) |
19.8 (-2.2) |
24.2 (+2.2) |
26.4 (+4.4) |
33.0 (+11.0) |
| Subscriptions | -18.7 | -18.7 (0) |
-18.7 (0) |
-18.7 (0) |
-18.7 (0) |
-18.7 (0) | |
| Access Provision | -3.5 | -3.5 (0) |
-3.5 (0) |
-3.5 (0) |
-3.5 (0) |
-3.5 (0) | |
| Transition costs | 0.2 | Constant at £200k for academic institutions | |||||
| Total | 0.0 | -4.4 (-4.4) |
-2.2 (-2.2) |
2.2 (+2.2) |
4.4 (+4.4) |
11.0 (+11.0) | |
| Others | Author-side payments | 5.5 | 4.4 (-1.1) |
5.0 (-0.6) |
6.1 (+0.6) |
6.6 (+1.1) |
8.3 (+2.8) |
| Subscriptions and other revenues[2] | -9.5 | -9.8 (-0.3) |
-9.6 (-0.2) |
-9.3 (+0.2) |
-9.1 (+0.3) |
-8.6 (+1.2) | |
| Access Provision | -2.1 | -2.1 (0) |
-2.1 (0) |
-2.1 (0) |
-2.1 (0) |
-2.1 (0) | |
| Transition costs | 0.8 | Constant at £800k for Others | |||||
| Total | -5.2 | -6.7 (-1.4) |
-6.0 (-0.7) |
-4.5 (+0.7) |
-3.8 (+1.4) |
-1.7 (+3.5) | |
| Annual Total | -5.2 | -11.1 (-5.8) |
-8.1 (-2.9) |
-2.3 (+2.9) |
0.6 (+5.8) |
9.4 (+14.6) | |
| 20-year NPV Net Total | -76.9 | -162.7 (-85.8) |
-119.8 (-42.9) |
-34.0 (+42.9) |
9.0 (+85.8) |
137.7 (+214.6) | |
Points to note are as follows:
- Even in the Central Case other sectors of the UK economy (‘Others’) make significant savings (c£5.2m). This reflects the fact that the non-academic institutions (i.e. the Others’ produce a small number of articles that they would have to pay for in the Gold Scenario—and this cost is small relative to the savings that they make from not having to pay subscription fees. The APC would have to increase significantly, well over 50%, for this group to incur cash costs from a global shift to author-side payments.
- Variation in APC can have a fairly significant impact on UK academic institutions annual cash costs. If the APC rises by 20%, UK academic institutions annual net costs will rise by £4.4m. However, for the UK as a whole some of these cash costs are offset by
