NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011
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Pathet Lao position in the northern provinces. (Paras. 48–49)
9. The, Communists now have few assets in Cambodia and will probably be unable to develop a significant internal threat in that country until their position is greatly strengthened in Laos or South Vietnam.[1] In the meantime, the DRV will probably continue its efforts to promote friendly relations and to secure Cambodian neutrality. (Para. 50)
10. We believe the DRV will be willing to continue political and economic contacts with the French. However, it almost certainly will be unwilling to make any agreement which in fact would permit the French to retain an economic and cultural position in North Vietnam. (Paras. 51–56)
DISCUSSION
I. INTRODUCTION
11. Under the terms of the Geneva Accords, and with the final withdrawal of French forces from the Haiphong area on 18 May 1955, a Communist regime known as the "Democratic Republic of Vietnam" (DRV) has assumed full responsibility for the administration of the territoty of Vietnam north of the 17th Parallel, pending a political settlement and the unification of the country.
12. The DRV, known also as the Viet Minh, was established at the end of the Second World War when a coalition of Vietnamese of all political leanings drew together under the leadership of the veteran Communist, Ho Chi Minh, and proclaimed Vietnamese independence. The DRV openly and frequently professed its solidarity with the Sino-Soviet Bloc after 1949. Since then any loss by the DRV of its Vietnamese support has been offset by a considerable increase in organizational and material strength and by the prestige of victories over French forces.
13. Although the recent assumption of responsibility over 13 million people and several large cities has confronted the DRV with major problems, these problems are not entirely new or unrelated to previous DRV experience. During its years of resistance, which was conducted until 1950 with little or no external assistance and under conditions of severe physical hardship and austerity, the DRV leadership was able to weed out the weak and timid, build an effective army, train a substantial number of experienced cadres and local administators, and obtain considerable experience in the techniques of political control. Thus, when the DRV assumed control of all North Vietnam in 1954, it possessed considerable advantages over the Diem government in terms of military strength and experience, organization and sense of unity and purpose.
14. While the immediate concern of the DRV is to consolidate its control in the North and to gain control of South Vietnam, its longer run objectives almost certainly are to build a strong Communist state in all Vietnam and to assist in the extension of Communist control throughout Southeast Asia.
II. INTERNAL SITUATION AND TRENDS
Stability and Effectiveness of the Regime
15. The DRV is organized on the normal pattern of all Communist "peoples democracies." Although the government of the DRV ostensibly represents all elements in a "united front" grouping (the Lien Viet), actual power resides in the Communist party (the Lao Dong or Workers Party). Out of a total population in North Vietnam of some 13 million, the Lien Viet is estimated to have approximately S million members, including the Lao Dong, which
- ↑ For an estimate of probable developments in Cambodia, see NIE 63.2-55, "Probable Developments in Cambodia Through July 1956," to be published in August 1955.
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