NND Project Number: NND 63316. By: NWD Date: 2011
5. The Communists would vigorously exploit the opportunities in Asia created by the failure of the US to intervene in Vietnam. Although Communist China and the Viet Minh would probably not launch early overt aggression against other countries, Chinese Communist diplomacy would probably become openly threatening, possibly supplemented by intimidatory troop movements near the Chinese Communist border with Burma and Laos or within Communist-held Vietnam. Communist policy would also be furthered by greatly increased support from overseas Chinese communities.
6. The Chinese Communists would probably apply strong pressure against those countries whose determination to resist Communist inroads had been most weakened. They would demand an accommodation to the Bloc going beyond the benevolent neutralism that is the current goal of Communist strategy in much of the area. Where more forceful action appeared necessary, Peiping would almost certainly encourage local Communist groups to resume and enlarge guerrilla operations and would support those operations more directly than in the recent past. In some cases units of Chinese Communist troops, possibly of minority origin, might be assigned to reinforce local guerrilla units. Communist operations against the offshore islands might be stepped up, but a full-scale attack against Taiwan would probably not be initiated.
7. The consequences of a US failure to intervene to save South Vietnam would be most serious in Asia. US prestige and influence would be drastically lowered, and the Manila Pact as an effective instrument against Communist aggression would almost certainly be destroyed. Even immediate and forceful subsequent US action elsewhere in Southeast Asia might not persuade any state in the area that further Communist pressure could be resisted. These countries would be reluctant to accept US offers of assistance from fear that closer alignment with the US would merely invite the Communists to further acts of aggression and that in such an event US assistance would not be forthcoming. They would become increasingly inclined to attempt to maintain their independence through negotiated understandings with Peiping.
8. Both Laos and Cambodia would probably initially proclaim a neutralist position but would shortly enter into cultural and economic agreements with Communist China as the first steps toward political accommodation. Thai apprehensions for their own security would greatly increase. Successive government changes might bring to power a leadership amenable to an accommodation with Communist China. Burma would probably not consider such Communist action as a direct threat and would seek to remain neutral. Should the Thai government reach an accommodation with the Communists, Burma would become concerned and would probably seek a closer alignment with India. The British would be gravely concerned over the security of Malaya and would almost certainly press for the commitment of US forces to the defense of Malaya. Although the Philippines, South Korea, and Nationalist China would remain allied with the US, they would have grave doubts concerning the future. They would almost certainly press the US for a more concrete demonstration of its determination to defend them. In Japan, neutralist sentiment would increase. Indonesia would attempt to maintain a neutral orientation but would be drawn toward an accommodation with the Communist Bloc as Communist influence spread through mainland Southeast Asia.
9. The reactions of the Western European allies of the US would be mixed. On the one hand, they would be concerned about the implications of US withdrawal in the face of an open Communist attack, and there would probably be an increase in defeatist and neutralist sentiment. On the other hand, we believe that these concerns would tend to be offset by their relief that a crisis in the Far East had not led to a renewal of armed con-
TOP SECRET
