would be compelled to leave in the great centres of population. The enemy, as is even now the case, would harass them, and keep them in a state of blockade, and all communication would be cut off between them and the central government. It would follow, as the immediate consequence, that commerce would be completely paralysed, as well as all agricultural and manufacturing labour; this would produce a state of deep dissatisfaction among the population, and an absolute want of resources, requisite to keep the troops to their duty.
The federal organisation seems as if it would save the country from any hostile attempt on the part of the United States; and this consideration appears to exercise a great influence over the minds of the people, who (rightly enough) fear lest any other form of government should prompt their northern neighbours to come down upon them as conquerors.
1. In a military point of view, I do not think that the imperial forces can maintain the country in a state of such tranquillity that the government of the emperor could be fully carried on. The military operations will be only isolated conflicts without decided results; the civil war will be kept on, with the arbitrary measures which these operations necessarily bring with them; and the demoralisation and ruin of the country will result as an infallible consequence.
2. In a financial point of view, as the administration of the country cannot be regularly carried on, the necessary means will not be produced for the maintenance of the central imperial government, and its agents will be obliged to impose heavy taxes, thus increasing the dissatisfaction of the population.
3. In a political point of view, the opinion of the majority of the nation appears, at the present time, to be far more inclined to a federal republic than to an empire; I may be allowed to doubt whether an appeal to the nation would result favourably to the present system, and perhaps, indeed, it would not respond at all to the summons addressed to it.
In short, it appears to me to be impossible that his majesty can continue to govern the country under any conditions which would be honourable for his sovereignty, without, in fact, lowering himself to the rank of a partisan chief; and that it would be preferable, both for his glory and his safety, that his majesty should surrender his authority to the nation.