towards a fixed numerical proportion in its uniformity; in the other the uniformity is found at last to fluctuate, and to fluctuate, it may be, in a manner utterly irreducible to rule.
As this chapter is intended to be little more than explanatory and illustrative of the foundations of the science, the remark may be made here (for which subsequent justification will be offered) that it is in the case of series of the former kind only that we are able to make anything which can be interpreted into strict scientific inferences. We shall be able however in a general way to see the kind and extent of error that would be committed if, in any example, we were to substitute an imaginary series of the former kind for any actual series of the latter kind which experience may present to us. The two series are of course to be as alike as possible in all respects, except that the variable uniformity has been replaced by a fixed one. The difference then between them would not appear in the initial stage, for in that stage the distinctive characteristics of the series of Probability are not apparent; all is there irregularity, and it would be as impossible to show that they were alike as that they were different; we can only say generally that each shows the same kind of irregularity. Nor would it appear in the next subsequent stage, for the real variability of the uniformity has not for some time scope to make itself perceived. It would only be in what we have called the ultimate stage, when we suppose the series to extend for a very long time, that the difference would begin to make itself felt[1]. The proportion of persons, for example, who die each year at the age of six months is, when the numbers examined are on a
- ↑ We might express it thus:—a few instances are not sufficient to display a law at all; a considerable number will suffice to display it; but it takes a very great number to establish that a change is taking place in the law.
